Changjiang Securities·2025-04-06 14:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The revenue growth of listed banks in the fourth quarter has generally rebounded, with large banks benefiting from a low base in Q4 2023 and increased investment income and foreign exchange gains [2][6] - Most banks maintain positive net profit growth, with large banks seeing a comprehensive turnaround in net profit growth, while high-quality city commercial banks lead in growth rates [2][6] - The net interest margin decline in the fourth quarter was better than expected, reflecting accelerated improvement in funding costs [2][8] - Asset quality is generally stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while the provision coverage ratio has generally declined, supporting profit growth [2][9] - Retail risk in the industry is rising, with expectations of continued pressure on retail risk in the first half of 2025 [2][9] - Dividend ratios for large banks remain stable, with state-owned banks maintaining a high certainty of a 30% dividend ratio [2][10] Performance Growth - In 2024, most state-owned banks and city commercial banks achieved positive revenue growth, with a trend of accelerated growth in Q4 [6][20] - The net profit growth of large state-owned banks has turned positive, with high-quality city commercial banks maintaining leading growth rates [6][20] Scale Expansion - Credit growth has generally slowed, with high-quality city commercial banks continuing to lead [7][27] - State-owned banks have seen a decrease in credit growth after rapid expansion over the past two years, while high-quality regional city commercial banks maintain strong growth [7][27] Profitability - The decline in net interest margin has slowed significantly, with an average decline of 1.5 basis points for state-owned banks in 2024 [8][24] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for 23 banks has decreased by 14 basis points [8][24] Asset Quality - Among 35 banks, 24 have seen a year-on-year decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while 9 have remained stable [9][29] - The provision coverage ratio has generally declined, particularly for retail banks, reflecting a reduction in credit impairment provisions [9][29] Dividend Ratio - Most banks maintain stable dividend ratios, with state-owned banks expected to maintain a 30% dividend ratio [10][12]