聚烯烃：后期仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PP will face continuous pressure in the later stage. Factors include the impact of the trade - war on the global economy and OPEC's production increase leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which is likely to cause PP prices to weaken. The downstream order recovery is nearing its end, and the supply pressure will gradually resume after mid - April [5][6]. - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short term. The macro - policy changes, especially the tariff war between the US and China, have increased market uncertainty. The tariff increase may affect polyethylene imports and plastic product exports, and the polyethylene market is facing negative feedback on the demand side and cost collapse, but the import issue also provides some support [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - PP: The trade - war drags down the global economy, OPEC's production increase causes a sharp decline in crude oil prices, which may lead to a weakening of PP prices. The downstream order recovery is almost over, and the supply pressure will gradually return after mid - April. In the medium - term, the new production capacity pressure on the supply side is concentrated in the first half of the year, and the total demand has hidden dangers. Although the export market has supported the domestic polyolefin market in recent years, there may be some pressure in the first half of 2025 [6]. - LLDPE: The macro - policy changes, especially the tariff war between the US and China, have increased market uncertainty. The tariff increase may affect polyethylene imports and plastic product exports. In 2025, the new domestic PE production capacity is expected to be 2.15 million tons in the second quarter, and the supply pressure may appear in the third quarter. The demand side may be affected by the trade - war, and the polyethylene market is short - term weak, but the import issue provides some support [7]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Non - standard price difference: The non - standard price difference of polypropylene has flattened, and the market has changed little. In 2025, the trend of non - standard price difference is still uncertain. The first - quarter demand is unlikely to explode, and in the second quarter, if there is an unexpected fiscal expansion in China, the non - standard price difference may expand. However, the trade - war may bring potential negative risks [16][19]. - Production and capacity utilization: The overall short - term start - up of polypropylene has decreased month - on - month, and the supply in April may be relatively loose. The current polypropylene capacity utilization rate has decreased by 0.05% to 76.38%, and the weekly output has decreased by 0.04 tons to 731,600 tons, a decline of 0.05% [20][22]. - Maintenance: April is the peak season for PP device maintenance in the first half of the year, and the planned maintenance is expected to increase [24]. - New production capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polypropylene is 7.005 million tons, with a production capacity increase of 16%. The potential production pressure is still large, especially from the commissioning of several large - scale refinery devices [25]. - Inventory: The production inventory of polypropylene has decreased month - on - month, while the inventory of traders has increased. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises has decreased by 25,300 tons to 616,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the inventory of trader sample enterprises has increased by 8,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.76% [26][30]. - Cost: The crude oil price dropped significantly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the cost of polypropylene will decline [31]. - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene manufacturers have declined. The calculated oil - based PP profit is - 472 yuan/ton, and the PDH device profit is - 798 yuan/ton [37][38]. - Downstream: The start - up of BOPP has remained flat, the order days have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a high level. The profit of BOPP is at a historical low, mainly due to over - capacity. The start - up of tape master rolls has remained flat, and the order situation is still not ideal. The start - up of plastic weaving has rebounded, and the order days have increased. The start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the start - up and order days of CPP have remained flat [39][42][47][50][55][58]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Import and export: In 2024, China imported 2.387 million tons of polyethylene from the US, accounting for 17.23% of the total imports and about 5.7% of the total supply. 46.2% of the products imported from the US are LLDPE. The amount of Chinese plastic products exported to the US in 2024 accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and the proportion has been declining in recent years [66]. - Price difference: The L - LL price difference of polyethylene has declined in the short term. The previous continuous decline of non - standard price difference has suppressed the overall structure of polyethylene, and the high premium of high - pressure to linear is difficult to continue in the medium - term [67][70]. - Production and capacity utilization: The start - up rate and output of polyethylene have increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 82.46%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points from the previous period, and the weekly output has increased by 1.15% to 623,400 tons [71][73]. - Maintenance: The expected maintenance loss of polyethylene in April will decrease compared with March [74]. - New production capacity: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polyethylene is 5.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of 16.8% [75]. - Inventory: The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises and social inventory have both decreased month - on - month. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise samples has decreased by 66,300 tons to 438,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.14%, and the social sample warehouse inventory has decreased by 11,600 tons to 618,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84% [77][80]. - Cost: The crude oil price dropped significantly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the cost of polyethylene will decline [81]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based polyethylene devices has declined. The calculated oil - based profit is - 391 yuan/ton [83][84]. - Downstream: The start - up of agricultural film has increased month - on - month, but the order days have decreased month - on - month. The start - up and order days of packaging film have both decreased. The start - up of pipes and hollow products has rebounded, but the growth rate is relatively slow [85][86][87].