高盛：原油评论：随着下行风险显现，下调我们的价格预测并缩小价格区间

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the December 2025 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 to $66 and $62 respectively, and the December 2026 forecasts by $6 to $62 and $59 respectively [2][4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights two key downside risks: tariff escalation and higher OPEC+ supply, which are contributing to the price downgrades [2][7]. - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be only 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, down from previous expectations of 0.9 mb/d [16][19]. - The OPEC+ countries have decided to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in May, significantly higher than the previously guided 135 kb/d, reflecting low inventories and a shift in market equilibrium [21][22]. - The report no longer forecasts a price range due to expected elevated price volatility driven by recession risks [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Forecast Adjustments - The December 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts have been reduced to $66 and $62 respectively, with annual averages now at $69 for Brent and $66 for WTI in 2025 [2][7]. - The December 2026 forecasts are now $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI, which are below the forward curve implied averages [11][39]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand is projected to grow by only 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, reflecting a reduction of nearly 0.4 mb/d in 2025Q4 and 0.5 mb/d in 2026Q4 [16][19]. - The increase in OPEC+ production is expected to contribute $2-3 to the December 2025 price downgrade [9][21]. Market Volatility and Hedging Recommendations - The report suggests that implied volatility remains underpriced, and recommends oil producers to hedge against further medium-term price declines [28][29]. - It is advised that refiners hedge deferred refined product margins, especially for complex refined products, due to the resilience of these margins despite recessionary concerns [37].