朝闻国盛：应对关税，会出哪些政策

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The recent reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US have significantly exceeded expectations, with the overall tariff rate on China reaching 65.7%, potentially reducing China's exports by 7-9 percentage points in 2025 and impacting GDP by over 1.0 percentage point [4] - The economic pressure from these tariffs is expected to accelerate the introduction of new policies, particularly those aimed at increasing leverage, including potential interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures [4] - The report suggests that fiscal measures may include additional bond issuance, estimating that a 1 percentage point decline in exports would require a fiscal boost of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report highlights that certain cyclical industries are entering a strong trend phase with low crowding, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel, while the TMT sector shows high crowding and should be approached with caution [14] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Postal Savings Bank recommended for their cyclical positioning [22] - The tungsten industry is noted for its strategic advantages, with companies that can ensure resource supply and high-end processing likely to benefit from the ongoing industry cycle [24] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Xiaomi Group is projected to see revenue growth from 452.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 713.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a focus on improving gross margins and expanding its IoT business [38] - The report anticipates that Lekin Technology will achieve revenues of 26.4 billion yuan in 2025, driven by its AIoT platform and expanding product matrix, with a "buy" rating assigned [26] - The company Kai Lai Ying is expected to recover with a projected net profit of 10.9 billion yuan in 2025, supported by a favorable order environment and ongoing investment in R&D [35] Group 4: Retail Sector Developments - The company Kid King is focusing on a multi-channel strategy and aims to accelerate its AI incubation efforts, with projected revenues of 107 billion yuan by 2025 [33] - Aiying Room is optimizing its traditional store operations and expanding its new business formats, with expected revenues of 36.9 billion yuan in 2025 [34]