宏观周报（4月第1周）：“对等关税”超预期放大市场波动

Macro Overview - The market experienced a significant decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.28% and the Shenzhen Component down by 2.28%[9] - March PMI data indicates a weak recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.5, slightly up from 50.2, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, reflecting a modest expansion[10] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. exceeded market expectations, leading to increased market volatility and a decline in risk appetite globally[14][20] Economic Impact - The U.S. has implemented a 10% baseline tariff effective April 5, with higher tariffs on specific trade partners starting April 9, impacting global economic forecasts[18] - The tariffs are expected to act as a fiscal tightening measure, increasing costs for businesses and consumers, which may slow economic growth and elevate stagflation pressures[20] - China's response includes a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, raising the overall tariff burden to over 60% for certain goods, which could further strain domestic demand and investment[22] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 7.82% and the S&P 500 down 9.08% following the tariff announcements[9] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, reflecting a shift in economic expectations due to the tariffs, with a notable drop in the 2-year yield as well[9][22] - The dollar index fell by 1.07%, while the offshore RMB depreciated, indicating a flight to safety amid rising economic uncertainty[9][22]