生猪：现货跌幅不及预期，情绪偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market expected a price correction after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There was a large amount of second - fattening pig sales before the festival, and the narrowing and inversion of the price difference of 300 - jin fat pigs recently confirmed the sales. The volume of second - fattening pigs waiting to enter the market after the festival is large, so the callback space after the festival is limited, and the secondary inventory accumulation rhythm is expected to be quickly realized. The May and July contracts have already priced in the expected spot price correction in advance. During the holiday, the spot price was strong, and the logic of narrowing the basis may reappear [3]. - The capacity data in March is expected to be good, and the far - month contracts lack upward driving forces, being more likely to fall than to rise. The positive spreads of 5 - 9, 7 - 9, or 7 - 11 have allocation space [3]. - The actual impact of the Sino - US tariff issue is limited, but the sentiment is strong. Pay attention to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,400 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,280 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change [1]. Futures Prices - The price of the生猪2505 contract is 13,270 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,480 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the生猪2505 contract is 25,524 lots, an increase of 5,287 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,224 lots, a decrease of 1,388 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 5,733 lots, an increase of 1,463 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 33,498 lots, a decrease of 270 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 7,232 lots, an increase of 605 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 44,406 lots, an increase of 243 lots from the previous day [1]. Price Spreads - The basis of the生猪2505 contract is 1,330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2507 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 740 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 70 yuan/ton [1]. - The 5 - 7 spread of live pigs is - 210 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is - 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].