关税扰动下有色或偏弱，金价或偏强

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that basic metals are likely to remain weak due to rising recession expectations in the U.S. following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, while precious metals, particularly gold, may have significant upward potential due to inflationary pressures and recession risks [1][14]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - The report highlights that the recent reciprocal tariffs have led to a significant drop in copper prices, with expectations of continued weakness in prices due to heightened recession fears in the U.S. [10][12]. - Copper prices fell sharply after the announcement of tariffs, with the cumulative tariff rate on China reaching 54% over 25 years, leading to a decline in domestic copper processing rates [10]. - Aluminum prices also showed a downward trend, with a reported price of 20,520 CNY/ton, down 1.44% week-on-week, and expectations of weak demand due to global recession concerns [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a decline due to liquidity issues, despite not being directly affected by the new tariffs. The report notes that gold prices closed at 738.97 CNY/gram, reflecting a 4.23% increase week-on-week [13][24]. - The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that inflationary disturbances and recession expectations will likely support its price in the future [14]. Lithium and Rare Earths - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining demand, with the current price at 73,900 CNY/ton, down 0.54% week-on-week [16]. - Rare earth prices are also projected to fluctuate, with current prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 442,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase, but demand may weaken in the short term due to tariff impacts [15]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Shandong Gold (1787 HK) with a target price of 20.65 CNY and an "Overweight" rating [3].