基础化工行业研究：中国对美反征关税，国内气头化工产品或将受到较大影响

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, indicating an expected fluctuation within -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The imposition of a 34% tariff by China on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, will significantly impact the prices and supply of ethane and propane, which are primarily imported from the U.S. [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to export 492 thousand barrels per day of ethane, with 227 thousand barrels per day (46%) going to China, highlighting China's heavy reliance on U.S. imports [2] - For propane, China is expected to import 29.32 million tons in 2024, with 17.31 million tons (59%) sourced from the U.S., indicating a high dependency on U.S. propane imports [2] - The increase in tariffs will likely lead to higher raw material costs for downstream products such as ethylene, polyethylene (PE), and propylene, resulting in price increases for these products [2] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the operational status of domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) facilities and ethane cracking units, as well as the price trends of relevant raw materials and products [2] Summary by Sections Section: Industry Analysis - The U.S. is the largest supplier of ethane and propane to China, and the new tariffs will significantly affect import prices and supply dynamics [2] - China's crude oil and natural gas imports from the U.S. are relatively small, with only 1.74% of crude oil and 5.73% of LNG imports coming from the U.S., suggesting limited impact on refining product prices [3] - The report notes that the price and supply of downstream petrochemical products like PX and PTA will be less affected by the tariffs compared to gas-based products [3] Section: Investment Recommendations - The report advises continuous monitoring of the price and operational rates of chemical raw materials and products due to the unpredictable nature of international political events affecting the market [4]