国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of tariff policies on various commodities, with many commodities facing price pressure due to tariff shocks and macro - economic factors. Some commodities are recommended for specific trading strategies, such as positive spreads for certain contracts and long - short combinations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The implementation of reciprocal tariff policies has occurred. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [5][8]. - Silver: There is a need to be vigilant about significant downward price movements. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [5][8]. Base Metals - Copper: The US unexpectedly increased tariffs, leading to a significant decline in the outer - market price. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [10][12]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the downside potential. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13][16]. - Alumina: It continues to search for a bottom. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13][16]. - Zinc: The macro - economic environment is bearish, causing the price to decline. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [17][18]. - Lead: Tariff shocks are putting pressure on the price. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [20]. - Nickel: The market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the visible inventory is marginally decreasing. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [23][26]. - Stainless Steel: There is seasonal destocking, and there is a game between cost support and high production schedules. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [23][26]. - Tin: Tariff shocks have affected macro - sentiment, dragging down the tin price. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [27][30]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Negative sentiment and a weak fundamental situation have led to an enlarged decline. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [31][33]. - Polysilicon: The actual impact of the tariff increase is not significant. Attention should be paid to opportunities for long - positions on price pull - backs. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [31][33]. Energy - related Metals - Lithium Carbonate: A weak fundamental situation combined with macro - economic drag has led to a downward - trending price. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [34][37]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The market sentiment has weakened, and the valuation may be significantly revised downward. The trend strength is - 2, the most bearish rating [38][39]. - Rebar: Concerns about systemic risks have increased, leading to weak and volatile trading. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [41][44]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Concerns about systemic risks have increased, leading to weak and volatile trading. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [42][44]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: It shows wide - range fluctuations due to resonance in the black - metal sector. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [46][49]. - Manganese Silico - Manganese: It shows wide - range fluctuations due to resonance in the black - metal sector. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [46][49]. - Coke: There is a divergence between futures and spot prices, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [50][53]. - Coking Coal: There is a divergence between futures and spot prices, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [51][53]. - Steam Coal: Demand has improved, but the price is under pressure. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [54][56]. Building Materials - Glass: The price of the original glass sheet has remained stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [57][58]. Chemicals - Para - Xylene (PX): Reciprocal tariffs between China and the US have caused cost collapse, and the price trend is weak. The price is expected to decline significantly after the holiday. The trend strength is bearish [60][63]. - PTA: Cost collapse and weakening demand expectations are observed. A strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA is recommended. The price is expected to decline after the holiday. The trend strength is bearish [60][64]. - MEG: China has imposed tariffs on US ethylene glycol/ethane. A strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA is recommended [60]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Tariff disturbances and a large decline in US soybeans have occurred. The Dalian soybean meal may be strong, but there is a risk of a pull - back after a rally [4]. - Soybean: It fluctuates with the soybean market, and there is a need to prevent a pull - back after a rally [4]. - Corn: It trades in a range [4]. - Sugar: It is dominated by macro - factors and follows the general trend [4]. - Cotton: There is a short - term downward risk [4]. - Egg: Attention should be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread [4]. - Live Pig: The decline in the spot price is less than expected, and market sentiment is strong [4]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the supply of peanuts [4].