Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market remains weak, with prices expected to continue to consolidate at low levels in the short term, ranging from 9,500 to 10,500 yuan/ton. The "reciprocal tariff" in the United States has a relatively limited impact on industrial silicon exports. For polysilicon, the price is supported by self - disciplined production cuts and the rush - to - install tide, and the strategy is to go long on dips and maintain a long - position allocation in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 11,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.61% to 9,820 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Furnace openings in Xinjiang have decreased, while there are new furnace openings in Sichuan. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new capacity put into production, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north, with limited overall changes [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production and support prices, and domestic monomer enterprises in production are expected to further reduce their operating rates to below 70% in April. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] Market Outlook - The rumor of production cuts has not been implemented, and the silicon market is still weak. Short - term silicon prices are expected to continue to consolidate at low levels, with an operating range of 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [1] Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 36 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.07% to 43,650 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the output of leading enterprises has reached the lowest limit. In February, the output decreased slightly to 90,100 tons due to fewer natural days, and the output increase in March is expected to be limited, with monthly output remaining within 100,000 tons [1] - Demand: In February, component enterprises produced on demand, and the production schedule decreased month - on - month. It is expected that component production will increase from March to April. Affected by the rush - to - install tide, batteries are in short supply, and factory inventories have fallen below the safety level. The silicon wafer sector is expected to have little change in operating rates in March, with limited incremental demand for polysilicon [1] Market Outlook - The price of polysilicon is supported by self - disciplined production cuts and the rush - to - install tide. The "reciprocal tariff" has a relatively limited impact. The strategy is to go long on dips and maintain a long - position allocation in the short term [1] Other Information - SMM research shows that the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises in Sichuan is 330 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 5%, an increase from last week. Some large - scale new industrial silicon projects are still being put into production in an orderly manner, while small - scale silicon enterprises in Sichuan basically remain in a shutdown state [1] - The market price of industrial silicon has been falling continuously, and the number of supporting external procurement silicon powder orders from polysilicon enterprises has decreased year - on - year. The competition among powder - grinding enterprises is fierce, and the transaction price of 99 silicon powder delivered to East China is around 10,700 yuan/ton [1]
工业硅、多晶硅日评:关税影响相对有限-2025-04-07
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-04-07 03:15