饲料养殖产业日报-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price has a high risk of decline due to strong supply and weak demand. For eggs, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, but the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is increasing. For oils, the domestic oils are expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a possible overall downward trend in the second quarter and a rebound in the third quarter. For soybean meal, the price before July is less directly affected, but the price is expected to be strong after September. For corn, the short - term price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the medium - to - long - term price has upward momentum but limited upside space [1][2][8][10]. Summary by Categories Pig - Price: During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price fluctuated narrowly. On April 7, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg respectively [1]. - Influence of Tariffs: China's 34% counter - tariff on all US imports since April 10, 2025, has limited direct impact on the domestic pig market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1% [1]. - Supply and Demand: Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for slaughter. The low - price entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening is good, and the low slaughter inventory also supports the price. However, the price is under pressure above. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is increasing, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The supply pressure in the long - term is still large [1]. - Strategy: The futures are at a discount, and the short - term supply pressure is postponed. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on 07 and 09 contracts [1]. Eggs - Price: On April 7, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.95 yuan/jin, and in Beijing was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, but the increase in old - hen culling and festival - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of old - hen culling or molting on the phased supply [2]. - Strategy: For the 05 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, they should be treated as bearish in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and culling [2]. Oils - Price Changes: On April 4, the US soybean oil main 5 - month contract fell 2.85% to 45.72 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main 6 - month contract fell 3.59% to 4329 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 100 - 120 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price fell 110 - 160 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Palm Oil: Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact. The Malaysian palm oil production increase in March is greater than the export increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is likely to decline [5]. - Soybean Oil: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending volume, the overall fundamentals are bearish. The domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The price may first fall and then rise in the medium - to - long - term [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian relations affect the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will decrease after May. The price is expected to rebound in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - Strategy: For the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, be cautious about chasing up. For the spread of 09 rapeseed - soybean oil, stop profit and exit [8]. Soybean Meal - Price Changes: On April 4, the US soybean 05 contract fell 34.75 cents/bu to 977.25 cents/bu. The spot price rose due to tariff sentiment [8]. - Impact of Tariffs: In the short - term, the impact on soybean meal before July is limited, but the price bottom will rise. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong after September [8]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing long on the 05 and 07 contracts on Monday. Hold the long positions on the 09 contract and go long on dips if not held. Do reverse spreads on the 7 - 9 spread and positive spreads on the 9 - 1 spread [8]. Corn - Price: On April 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2170 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2220 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2324 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the spot price has some pressure, but there is also support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. - Strategy: Treat the general direction as moderately strong. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract and pay attention to the 2250 support level [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [11].