生猪周报：多空交织，猪价震荡调整-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pig price will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of a new low in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Based on the piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise strongly under sufficient supply [1]. - There is still a marginal profit for weight gain within 150 kg currently. Once the spot price drops to around 14 yuan/kg, second - fattening may enter the market to support the price, so the spot price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [1]. - The 2505 contract has a certain degree of discount to the spot. Considering the current fundamentals, its price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures End - 主力合约基差情况: This week, both futures and spot prices fluctuated. The basis of the benchmark for the main contract was 1260 yuan/ton on April 3, 2025, compared with 1035 yuan/ton on March 27, 2025 [2][3]. - 各合约价格变化情况: The far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [4]. - 月间价差变化: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [7][10]. Spot End - 猪价与宰量: This week, the pig price continued to fluctuate, and the slaughter volume decreased compared with last week [13]. - 区域价差: The price differences among the selected regions were in a relatively reasonable range [15]. - 肥标价差: The fat - to - standard price difference continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight to some extent [17]. - 鲜销与毛白价差: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - 相关产品比价与鲜冻价差: Recently, the beef price has risen, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. - 养殖利润: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly positive [23]. - 出栏体重: This week, the average slaughter weight continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. Capacity End - 能繁母猪存栏量: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.66 million at the end of February, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in February, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 decreased by 0.05% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.63% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in February, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.05% month - on - month, compared with a decrease of 0.04% in the previous month [27]. - 母猪淘汰情况: This week, the price of culled sows was relatively stable. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly in February month - on - month [30]. - 母猪生产效率与新生健仔数: In February, the number of healthy piglets born was basically stable month - on - month, with a decrease of 0.01% (the previous value was an increase of 0.8%). Corresponding to the hog slaughter volume, it will continue to increase in July this year and remain stable in August [32]. - 母猪、仔猪补栏积极性: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight upward trend, mainly because the warming weather increased farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets. The price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. Slaughter End - 屠宰量与屠宰利润等: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in February was 21.77 million, a month - on - month decrease of 43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Some slaughterhouses carried out the action of cutting and warehousing frozen products, which supported the pig price [36]. Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on the domestic pig price is relatively small [39].