海外宏观周报：“对等关税”引巨震

Economic Policy - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, imposing a base tariff of 10% on all imports, with rates for 57 countries reaching 20-49%, significantly exceeding market expectations[2] - China responded on April 4 by imposing a 34% tariff on US goods, raising the total tariffs on China to 54% for the year, with cumulative tariffs estimated at 66.5%[2] - The GDPNow model predicts a Q1 2025 GDP annualized rate of -2.8%, with a gold-adjusted forecast of -0.8%[7] Market Reactions - Global stock markets suffered significant declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 9.1%, 7.9%, and 10.0% respectively following the tariff announcement[14] - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield down 26 basis points to 4.01% and the 2-year yield down 21 basis points to 3.68%[19] - Oil prices dropped significantly, with Brent and WTI crude down 10.9% and 10.6% respectively, influenced by the tariff impacts and OPEC+ production increases[21] Employment and Inflation - The US added 228,000 non-farm jobs in March, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%[4] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.8%, slightly below expectations[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 1.07% to 102.92, with safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gaining[23] - The euro appreciated by 1.26% against the dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.29%[23]