Guohai Securities·2025-04-07 04:02Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025 due to several factors, including decreasing inventory levels, bottoming out of profits, and institutional holdings reaching a low point [8][30] - The supply-demand tension in phosphate rock is likely to continue, with a potential revaluation of its value, particularly focusing on the capacity expansion of Batian Co., Ltd [4][6] - The impact of the new round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese chemical enterprises is expected to be limited, as the U.S. still needs to import a significant amount of chemical products from China [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector showed a performance of 0.0% over the last month, 8.4% over the last three months, and 1.2% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which had performances of -0.7%, 2.3%, and 8.2% respectively [2] Investment Suggestions - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion opportunities, such as Wanhu Chemical, and those in the tire and fertilizer sectors [8] - Highlight the potential for increased demand in phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries, with ongoing projects in fine phosphate chemicals [4][6] - Emphasize high dividend yield opportunities in state-owned enterprises within the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [10] Key Company Tracking - Batian Co., Ltd. plans to expand its phosphate rock production capacity from 900,000 tons/year to 2 million tons/year, with additional projects underway [6] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices in sulfuric acid, acrylic acid, and synthetic ammonia, with a focus on companies like Batian Co., Ltd. and others in the phosphate sector [7][9] Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, the price of phosphate rock was 1,038 CNY/ton, with slight fluctuations in related fertilizer prices [19] - The Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at 66.06 and 62.32 USD/barrel, respectively, indicating a week-on-week decrease of approximately 9.98% and 9.73% [12]