Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including methanol, crude oil, iron ore, etc., with the overall market influenced by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [1][2][4]. - Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be volatile in the short - term, while others face downward pressure or are affected by specific events like tariff hikes [1][4][5]. 3. Commodity - Specific Summaries Methanol - Market data: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2560 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; port inventory is 61.61 tons, down 15.77 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 31.15 tons, down 1.62 tons weekly; order backlog is 22.33 tons, down 1.28 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 86.21%, up 2.51% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 75.06%, up 0.16% weekly [1]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate in the short - term with resistance at 2470. Suggestion is to observe or short - sell [1]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of April 4, US active drilling rigs are 489, up 5 from the previous week and down 19 from the same period last year. OPEC+ will increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day in May [2]. - Outlook: Short - term risks need to be released. Suggestion is to short - sell on rallies [2]. Iron Ore - Market data: SGX iron ore dropped 3.9% during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [4]. - Outlook: Supply is recovering, and the market is affected by tariff concerns. There is a risk of price decline after the domestic market opens [4]. 螺纹钢 - Market data: On April 3, 2025, the US imposed a 34% tariff on China, with a cumulative 54% tariff this year and a 45% increase on steel and aluminum products [5]. - Outlook: Prices are likely to weaken in the short - term. In the long - term, steel mill profits may remain low [5]. Treasury Bonds - Market data: China will impose a 34% tariff on US imports starting April 10, 2025 [5]. - Outlook: Expected to rise due to monetary easing expectations and risk - aversion. Suggestion is to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of April 4, the average slaughter weight is 123.91 kg, up 0.01; weekly slaughter rate is 27.92%, up 0.01%;外购仔猪养殖 profit is 104.86 yuan/head, down 15.75 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 131.97 yuan/head, up 10.1 yuan/head; piglet price is 533.33 yuan/head, up 4.76 yuan/head [6]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to adjust weakly. Farmers are advised to hedge when selling [6]. Palm Oil - Market data: Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 5 are 131,600 tons, down 6.44% month - on - month. The market expects inventory to reach 1.56 million tons, up 3% [7]. - Outlook: Suggestion is to short - sell on rallies. Attention should be paid to policies and inventory changes [7]. Soda Ash - Market data: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1471.5 yuan/ton, showing a slow decline; weekly production is 71.3 tons, up 3.3%; total inventory is 170.14 tons, up 4.38% [8]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate in the short - term with resistance at 1400. Suggestion is to observe or short - sell [8]. PTA - Market data: In 2024, US clothing imports were $83.7 billion, with about $61 billion from Asian countries [9]. - Outlook: Short - term price follows crude oil. Suggestion is to short - sell at high levels [9]. Gold - Market data: US non - farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate is 4.2% [10]. - Outlook: Maintains a bullish view. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations [10].
宁证期货今日早评-2025-04-07
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-04-07 04:47