Macroeconomic Overview - In March, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US increased by 228,000, exceeding the expected increase of 135,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 151,000 to 117,000 [2][3] - The unemployment rate in March was 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1% [2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly higher than the expected 62.4% [2] Employment Data - The government sector added 19,000 jobs in March, with the previous month's figure revised down from 11,000 to 1,000 [3] - Private non-farm employment rose by 209,000, surpassing the expected increase of 127,000, with previous figures revised down from 140,000 to 116,000 [3] - Within private non-farm employment, the goods-producing sector added 12,000 jobs, while the service sector saw an increase of 197,000 jobs [3] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are mixed, with probabilities for maintaining rates unchanged at 56.7% and for a 25 basis point cut at 43.3% [4] - Following the non-farm payroll report, the likelihood of maintaining rates unchanged decreased from 60.1% to 56.7% [4] Agricultural Chemicals Industry - Li Er Chemical expects a net profit of 145 million to 155 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 203.08% to 223.98%, driven by rising prices of chlorinated pyridine products [8] - The agricultural chemicals industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices of major products like glyphosate increasing by 10-15% [8] Consumer Sector Insights - During the Qingming Festival, approximately 790 million people traveled, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [10] - In Shanghai, tourist numbers reached 7.0027 million, a 5.45% increase year-on-year, indicating a trend of sustained recovery in domestic consumption [10] - The average hotel occupancy rate in Shanghai rose by 6 percentage points, further supporting the positive outlook for the domestic consumption sector [10]
第一创业晨会纪要-2025-04-07
First Capital Securities·2025-04-07 05:09