招银国际每日投资策略-2025-04-07

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of short-term stagflation risk as the March services PMI fell more than expected, with demand and employment weakening significantly while the price index continues to expand [2] - The trade war is expected to elevate the risk of stagflation followed by recession, as rising supply costs and inflation expectations outweigh the effects of demand contraction [2] - The S&P 500 index has issued a recession warning after dropping over 20%, leading to expectations that the Trump administration may slow down aggressive tariffs and government spending cuts while accelerating tax cuts and deregulation [2] Industry Insights Technology Sector - The new tariffs imposed by the US on imports are expected to have a limited direct impact on component suppliers, as most do not export directly to the US [5] - However, OEM/ODM companies will face direct impacts due to assembly operations primarily located in China, Vietnam, and India [5] - Apple is anticipated to be the most affected brand, with over 40% of its sales in the US, while Xiaomi's impact is expected to be minimal due to its limited revenue exposure in the US market [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing weak overall growth, with average revenue growth at 4.2% and net profit growth at 1.0% for 142 listed companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is performing well, with average revenue growth of 36.8%, driven by favorable healthcare payment environments and overseas licensing revenues [6] - The medical device sector shows stability with an average revenue growth of 8.9% and net profit growth of 2.6%, despite ongoing price pressures from procurement policies [7] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is witnessing a divergence in profitability, with companies like Xpeng and Geely expected to outperform due to strong sales and reduced discounts [8] - The average discount in the industry has narrowed slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing strategies among leading brands [8] - New model launches during the Shanghai Auto Show are anticipated to boost sales in the second quarter of 2025 [8] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xiaomi, and BYD Electronics, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions and potential recovery in their respective sectors [13]