美国经济：PMI指向短期滞涨风险

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.5 in February to 50.8 in March, below the market expectation of 52.9, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion[2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.3 in February to 49 in March, also below the expected 49.5, signaling a return to contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] Demand and Employment Trends - The New Orders Index for services decreased from 52.2 to 50.4, nearing a nine-month low, reflecting weakened demand[2] - The Employment Index for services plummeted from 53.9 to 46.2, marking the first contraction in six months, indicating reduced hiring demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Price Index for services remained elevated, decreasing slightly from 62.6 to 60.9, while the Manufacturing Price Index surged from 62.4 to 69.4, the highest since June 2022, suggesting significant inflationary pressures[2] - The report indicates that inflation may rise initially due to supply cost increases but could decline later as economic slowdown and demand contraction take precedence[1] Market Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests a risk of stagflation in the short term, with potential for the S&P 500 to decline further, especially if it drops more than 20%[1] - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December, in response to rising recession risks and market volatility[1]