宏观面、基本面利空共振，甲醇或延续弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures declined significantly. As of the afternoon close on April 3rd, methanol weighted dropped 3.23% from the previous week, closing at 2,428 yuan/ton. Next week, the fundamentals of methanol are expected to weaken further, and medium - term bearish factors are accumulating. With the resumption of domestic methanol plants and increased imports, combined with the arrival of the downstream maintenance season in the second quarter, the supply - demand balance in the far - month is likely to be loose. Considering the significant adverse changes in the macro - environment, methanol futures may continue to fall, and short - selling opportunities in methanol can be considered. Spot enterprises can also look into selling hedging opportunities for methanol [5][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market showed a weak trend due to supply recovery, with obvious regional coordinated declines. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-3.07%) from the previous week; the weekly average price in Taicang was 2,584 yuan/ton, down 97.8 yuan/ton (-3.65%); the weekly average price in the gas - based production area of Sichuan and Chongqing was 2,429.17 yuan/ton, down 22.83 yuan/ton (-0.93%). In the futures market, methanol weighted fell 3.23%, closing at 2,428 yuan/ton [12][13] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - From March 28th to April 3rd, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,873,995 tons, an increase of 54,650 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 86.21%, a 3.00% increase from the previous week. There were more restarts than maintenance in domestic methanol plants this week, leading to the increase in capacity utilization [14] 3.2.2 Downstream Capacity Utilization - As of April 3rd, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Yangtze River Delta was 78.93%, up 1.65 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.51%; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of methane chloride was 75.14%, down from the previous week; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 52.50%, up slightly from the previous week [18] 3.2.3 Orders to be Fulfilled - As of April 2nd, 2025, the orders to be fulfilled by Chinese methanol sample enterprises were 223,300 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons (5.43%) from the previous period. The orders to be fulfilled by enterprises in the northwest decreased by 3.73% week - on - week, while those in the east increased by 6.60%. The orders to be fulfilled by sample enterprises in the north remained stable, those in the central region decreased by 34.90%, those in the southwest decreased by 5.32%, and those in the northeast decreased by 22.22% [21] 3.2.4 Enterprise Inventory - As of April 2nd, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 311,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons (4.95%) from the previous period. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest decreased by 9.03%, while that in the east increased by 3.31%. The inventory of sample enterprises in the north increased by 4.20%, that in the central region increased by 8.45%, that in the southwest decreased by 3.95%, and that in the northeast decreased by 2.94% [27] 3.2.5 Port Inventory - As of April 2nd, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 616,100 tons, a decrease of 157,700 tons (-20.38%) from the previous period. The ports continued to significantly reduce inventory, with slow unloading of foreign vessels and good提货 at major terminals in Jiangsu and stable demand in Zhejiang. The ports in South China also significantly reduced inventory [32] 3.2.6 Profit - From March 28th to April 3rd, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises declined overall. The average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 417 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the previous week; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 234.70 yuan/ton, down 14.69%; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Shandong was 260.70 yuan/ton, down 12.55%; the average profit of coal - based methanol in Shanxi was 327.10 yuan/ton, down 6.83%; the average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 130 yuan/ton, down 8.00% [33] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Next week, China's estimated methanol production is about 1.8836 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.65%, an increase from the current period. Domestic methanol demand may decline. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 316,500 tons, with little change from the current period. The port methanol inventory is expected to change little, and the focus is on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. Overall, methanol futures and spot prices are likely to continue to be weak [39][40]