Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no content related to the report industry investment rating in the provided text. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to the US government's high - tariff policy, the macro - factor has turned bearish. Meanwhile, the scale of domestic methanol spring maintenance is limited, resulting in high supply pressure. Coupled with insufficient improvement in downstream demand, the industry factor is also weak. Against this backdrop, this week, the domestic methanol futures 2505 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the price dropping from 2541 yuan/ton to 2452 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 3.42%. The 5 - 9 spread has shifted to a reverse arbitrage trend, narrowing to 71 yuan/ton [5][17]. - Seasonal maintenance is beneficial to methanol, but the effect is weaker than in previous years. The scale of spring maintenance has been shrinking in recent years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year. Due to the high - tariff initiated by the US, it may lead to intensified international trade disputes and a global economic recession. Considering that China launched counter - tariff measures against the US during the Tomb - sweeping Festival holiday, and the prices of overseas stock markets, crude oil, natural gas and other commodities have fallen sharply, it is expected that after the holiday, the domestic methanol futures 2505 contract may gap down and operate weakly [5][43]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Price Drops Slightly, Basis Strengthens Slightly - In the week of April 3, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2615 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 2610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 45 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2505 contract as the futures reference price, the basis premium has strengthened slightly. As of the week of April 3, 2025, the basis was maintained at 161 yuan/ton [9]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominate, Methanol Weakly Declines - Affected by the US high - tariff policy and limited domestic spring maintenance, along with insufficient downstream demand, the domestic methanol futures 2505 contract showed a weak downward trend this week, with a cumulative decline of 3.42%. The 5 - 9 spread shifted to a reverse arbitrage trend, narrowing to 71 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Analysis of Methanol Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Drops Slightly, Weekly Output Drops Slightly - In 2024, China's new methanol production capacity was about 4.3 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 4.2%. The new production capacity had limited impact on the balance sheet. The average weekly operating rate in 2024 was 77.04%, a significant increase of 5.02% compared with the previous year. The average weekly output was 1.7505 million tons, a significant increase of 134,500 tons compared with the previous year. It is estimated that the refined methanol output in 2024 was about 78 - 80 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5 - 7%. - In March 2025, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output showed a phased decline. As of the week of March 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 75.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%, and a slight decrease of 0.82% compared with the same period last year. The weekly output was 1.8269 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82,300 tons, and a significant increase of 118,200 tons compared with the same period last year. - In 2025, the domestic methanol supply pattern will remain loose. The planned new production capacity is 15.8 million tons, with an expected year - on - year increase of about 14.8%. It is estimated that the total methanol output in 2025 will reach 85.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9.5% [19][20]. 2.2 Overseas Methanol Plants Resume Production, Import Pressure Will Increase - In March, Iran has shipped about 200,000 tons. If the Iranian methanol plants restart as scheduled in late March, the total shipment in March is expected to reach 440,000 tons. Non - Iranian plants partially restarted in early March, and the monthly shipment is expected to increase to about 400,000 tons. Therefore, the optimistic estimate of China's methanol imports in April is 800,000 - 850,000 tons. - The new US Geismar 3 (1.8 million tons/year) plant is operating stably, while the new Petronas Sarawak 3 (1.7 million tons/year) plant is shut down. The new overseas supply will gradually appear, but the increase in goods shipped to China is expected to be limited. Some existing plants have restarted, but the non - Iranian methanol supply is expected to remain at a low level [25]. 2.3 The Disk Profit of Methanol - Based Olefins Improves Significantly - As of the week of March 28, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 25.73%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the acetic acid operating rate was 93.05%, a week - on - week increase of 1.70%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.07%, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. - As of the week of March 28, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants was 82.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.04 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. As of April 3, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefins futures disk profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 261 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 408 yuan/ton [28]. 2.4 Port Inventories Drop Significantly, Inland Inventories Drop Slightly - As of the week of March 28, 2025, the methanol inventories in East and South China ports were 605,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 84,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,500 tons, and a significant increase of 214,800 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the inventory in East China ports was 408,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 196,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons. - As of the week of April 3, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 311,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,200 tons, a decrease of 4.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 98,500 tons, and a significant decrease of 89,400 tons compared with the same period last year [32]. 2.5 The Profit of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Increases - As of the week of March 28, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2386 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2637 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2505 contract at 2541 yuan/ton on March 28, 2025, the coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was profitable, with a profit of 155 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.47%. - In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2310 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2560 yuan/ton. The profit was 231 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 10%. - In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 2242 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2492 yuan/ton. The profit was 299 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 13.34% [35][36]. 3. Conclusion - Seasonal maintenance is beneficial to methanol, but the effect is weaker than in previous years. The scale of spring maintenance is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year. Due to the US high - tariff policy and China's counter - tariff measures during the Tomb - sweeping Festival, it is expected that after the holiday, the domestic methanol futures 2505 contract may gap down and operate weakly [43].
甲醇周报：利空因素主导，甲醇弱势下行-2025-04-07
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-04-07 05:32