宝城期货煤焦早报-2025-04-07

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of both 2505 contract of coking coal and 2505 contract of coke is a decline, and the medium - term view for both is consolidation. The reference view for both is a consolidation approach. Coking coal will likely maintain a weak consolidation due to its long - term loose supply - demand pattern, and coke will oscillate at a low level as short - term improvement and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Coking Coal (JM) - Price Movement Outlook: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: consolidation; Reference view: consolidation approach [1][5]. - Core Logic: The long - term loose supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains unchanged, with high supply and high imports continuing. Demand improvement in real estate and infrastructure takes time, and export demand faces trade policy risks. The recent trade tariff perturbation has limited direct impact on coking coal but may affect the overall atmosphere of the black commodity sector. The long - term fundamentals of coking coal are bearish, leading to the low - level operation of the futures main contract [5]. For Coke (J) - Price Movement Outlook: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: consolidation; Reference view: consolidation approach [1][7]. - Core Logic: Coking plants have initiated the first round of price hikes, pending implementation by steel mills. The cost - side and demand - side concerns for coke persist in the long run. The loose supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides insufficient cost support for coke. The newly implemented US tariff policy adds to the demand concerns for black commodities. The short - term improvement and long - term bearish expectations of coke fundamentals are intertwined, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the main contract [7].