国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-2025-04-07

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The wind has turned weaker, and the valuation may be significantly revised downward [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Concerns about systemic risks have intensified, resulting in weak oscillations [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Due to the resonance of the black sector, they experience wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: There is a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to wide - range oscillations [2][16][17]. - Steam coal: Demand has improved, but prices are under pressure [2][20]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day, with a position of 303,166 hands, a decrease of 33,977 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, and the basis and spreads showed different changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The State Council Tariff Commission will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 2, indicating the most bearish view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: Rebar RB2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.19%; hot - rolled coil HC2505 closed at 3,337 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 0.63%. Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed [8]. - Macro and Industry News: On April 4, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production increased by 1.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.05 million tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 21.04 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 9.62 million tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 4.37 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 6.37 million tons. The US government announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods exported to the US, and China will impose additional tariffs on US imports [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a bearish view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes, and spot prices generally declined. There were also changes in the basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On April 3, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions were reported, and UMK announced its manganese ore quotation for May 2025. There were also news about ferrosilicon and silicomanganese steel tenders [13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral view [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The futures price of coking coal JM2505 closed at 1,001 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan or 0.05%; the futures price of coke J2505 closed at 1,628.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.49%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [17]. - Price and Position Information: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and on April 3, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, there were changes in the long and short positions of coking coal and coke contracts [17][19]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral view [19]. Steam Coal - Yesterday's Inner - Market Situation: The steam coal ZC2505 had no trading yesterday, with the previous opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest price of 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price of 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [20]. - Fundamental Information: The prices of southern port foreign - trade steam coal and domestic steam coal production areas were reported. On April 3, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2505 contract did not change [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Glass - Fundamental Data: The futures price of FG505 closed at 1,198 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The basis and spreads changed, and important spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - Spot News: The price of the domestic float glass original sheet market was stable with a slight decline. The trading in the northern Shahe market declined slightly, and other markets mainly sold at stable prices, with different trading situations [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [24].