利空因素影响，原油止涨转跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" executive order has a significant impact on international crude oil futures, increasing short - term fluctuations of commodities like crude oil and intensifying concerns about global economic slowdown, which weakens crude oil demand expectations. The uncertainty of tariff policies boosts investors' risk - aversion sentiment and suppresses risk assets such as crude oil [6]. - China's additional 34% tariff on US imports starting from April 10, 2025, directly increases the import cost of US crude oil, raises domestic crude oil prices and production costs of energy - chemical products. It may also affect the market supply - demand pattern and downstream products [6]. - Short - term escalation of the Sino - US trade tariff war may lead to intensified price fluctuations of crude oil futures and downstream energy - chemical commodity futures. It is advisable to avoid systematic risks [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Slightly Rises and Basis Discount Slightly Narrows - As of the week ending April 3, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in Shengli Oilfield area is $70.59 per barrel (equivalent to RMB 507.5 per barrel), with a week - on - week increase of RMB 0.6 per barrel. The domestic crude oil futures main contract 2505 is reported at RMB 542.0 per barrel, and the basis is RMB 34.5 per barrel, with the discount slightly narrowing [10]. 3.1.2 Crude Oil Stops Rising and Turns Down under the Influence of Negative Factors - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed two executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs". The 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners took effect on the early morning of April 5, 2025, and additional tariffs on 60 countries with the highest trade deficits with the US will take effect on the early morning of April 9, 2025. The scale of these tariffs exceeded market expectations. - On the night session of Wednesday this week, international crude oil futures prices stopped rising and turned down. The US WTI crude oil futures price dropped 2.47% to $69.94 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price dropped 2.24% to $73.27 per barrel. On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2505 contract closed 2.24% lower at RMB 542.0 per barrel [6][13][14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Structure Weakens and the Production Increase Cycle Arrives 3.2.1 OPEC+ Production - Cut Policy Tends to End and the Expectation of Loose Supply Revives - OPEC+ repeatedly postponed its production - increase plan due to concerns about weak global crude oil demand and increasing supply from non - OPEC countries. As of the end of 2024, OPEC+ had a cumulative production cut of about 5.7% of global crude oil supply (about 5.85 million barrels per day). - OPEC+ decided at the December 5, 2024 meeting to gradually and flexibly cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by 8 member countries from April 1, 2025, to the end of 2026. On March 3, 2025, 8 countries including Saudi Arabia decided to start the production - increase plan from April 1, 2025, and adjust the pace flexibly. The IEA predicted that the global crude oil supply surplus would increase from 950,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 if OPEC+ increased production [22][23]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Production Capacity Remains at a High Level - The US, as the leading non - OPEC oil - producing country, has maintained high - level crude oil production. As of the week ending February 14, 2025, the number of active oil - drilling platforms in the US was 481, with a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 16. The daily average crude oil production was 13.497 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.97 million barrels per day. The EIA estimated that the US crude oil production would increase by 280,000 barrels per day in 2025 [27]. 3.2.3 The Northern Hemisphere's Crude Oil Demand Enters a Seasonal Off - Peak - US crude oil demand has obvious seasonal changes. From December to February, it is the peak season for heating oil consumption, and refinery operating rates rise. In March 2025, the off - peak season arrived, refinery operating rates declined, and inventory - building pressure emerged. - Global crude oil demand growth is limited in 2025. Developed economies' demand is affected by slow economic recovery, energy transformation, strong US dollar, and Trump's tariff policy. China's demand expansion is also limited due to energy transformation and high penetration of new - energy vehicles [48][49]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventory Increases Significantly and Refinery Operating Rate Drops Slightly - As of the week ending March 28, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) reached 439.792 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 6.165 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 11.625 million barrels. Cushing, Oklahoma's crude oil inventory increased by 2.373 million barrels week - on - week. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 0.285 million barrels month - on - month. The refinery operating rate was 86.0%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 percentage point [54]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Import and Production Decline Slightly in January - February 2025 - In January - February 2025, China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 2.1% year - on - year, but crude oil production decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.0% year - on - year. The improvement of the domestic crude oil supply - demand structure helps the domestic crude oil futures price to stabilize and rebound [57]. 3.3 Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East Are Prominent and There Are Big Disputes over the Cease - Fire in Russia - Ukraine - In mid - March 2025, geopolitical risks in the Middle East resurfaced. The US launched at least 47 air strikes on Yemen, and the Houthi rebels retaliated. If the Mandeb Strait is closed or unstable, it will increase the uncertainty of crude oil exports from the Middle East and bring a premium to international crude oil futures prices [65][66]. - On March 20, 2025, the US announced new sanctions on Iran. This is the fourth round of sanctions since Trump said he would re - impose "maximum pressure" on Iran in February. The sanctions may bring a risk premium of $3 - 5 per barrel [67]. - The US is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, but the conflict is intensifying. There are differences between Russia and Ukraine on the cease - fire conditions, and the negotiation progress is slow [68]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increase Significantly Week - on - Week - Since March 2025, international crude oil futures prices have stabilized, and the market's long - buying power has recovered. As of March 25, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 180,558 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 13,735 contracts. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 250,215 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 55,511 contracts [82]. 3.5 Conclusion - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" executive order affects international crude oil futures, increasing short - term fluctuations and weakening demand expectations. China's additional tariff on US imports will increase costs and may affect the supply - demand pattern. Short - term price fluctuations of crude oil and downstream products may intensify, and it is necessary to avoid systematic risks. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, domestic crude oil futures may open at the daily limit down, and it is necessary to observe relevant boosting policies [84][87].