中辉期货豆粕日报-2025-04-07

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term upward trend. Brazil's soybean production outlook is stable, while Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The US - China trade dispute over soybeans has temporarily ended. The US soybean planting intention area has decreased, but the ending inventory is higher than expected. In the domestic market, port and soybean meal inventories have decreased this week, but soybean imports will increase from April to June. The intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and frost in Argentina may lead to a bullish sentiment in the market. Near - month contracts' gains are limited, while there is a risk of far - month contract price increases. The main contract range is [3000, 3090] [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term stop - falling and rebound. The US tariff on Canadian rapeseed is negative for rapeseed prices. In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills have decreased, and the pressure has marginally improved. Although China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the actual positive impact is limited. The short - term supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is sufficient, and the new rapeseed will be harvested in May, with a weak fundamental situation. However, influenced by the bullish sentiment in the soybean meal market, there is a demand for a stop - falling and rebound. The main contract range is [2560, 2700] [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term high - level oscillation. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increase, but with the gradual recovery of the production season and the increasing marginal supply, the monthly trend of palm oil is expected to weaken. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April. The previous pest infestation in Malaysian palm oil trees needs attention. In the domestic market, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports are low. The inverted spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has led to light spot trading. The near - month contracts are expected to remain strong before expiration, but the fundamental situation is gradually weakening. The far - month contracts should be treated as a large - range market. The main contract range is [9150, 9350] [1]. - Cotton: Phased weakening. The ICE market has declined rapidly due to China's further tariff counter - measures. In the context of the deteriorating international trade environment, the US inflation expectation has intensified, consumption expectation has declined, and the risk of macro - economic recession has increased, posing severe challenges to US cotton exports and prices. In the domestic market, industrial and commercial inventories are high and gradually being reduced, and the import side has shrunk significantly. The new - season cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the soil moisture has no obvious negative warning. The focus in April will shift to new - season planting. The export cost of textile products has increased due to tariff barriers, and the domestic oversupply situation may intensify. The domestic cotton - related consumption policy is still poor, and the short - term market is expected to be under pressure. The main contract range is [13200, 13600] [1]. - Red Dates: Weak operation. In the short term, the arrival volume in the downstream sales areas is large, and there are no bright spots after the downstream market enters the off - season. Seasonal fresh fruits are gradually entering the market, squeezing the market share of red dates. The current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the red date market has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near future. Attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season. The main contract range is [9000, 9300] [1]. - Live Pigs: Weak oscillation. The futures market has pre - traded the small resonance market of secondary fattening and slaughter in the future, leading to a rebound in the basis. The current market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the first half of 2025. Recently, farms have increased their slaughter, and the supply of standard pigs is expected to be abundant. After the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the market demand recovery is limited. The low - level spot price restricts the unilateral trading trend of futures. The main 2505 contract of live pigs is expected to continue to operate at a low level after being under pressure. Attention should be paid to the future data of piglets for arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year. The main contract range is [13150, 13500] [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - Production and Trade: Brazil's soybean production outlook is stable, while Argentina may have insufficient rainfall. The US - China soybean trade dispute has temporarily ended, and the US soybean planting intention area has decreased, but the ending inventory is higher than expected [1]. - Domestic Market: This week, domestic port and soybean meal inventories have decreased, but soybean imports will increase from April to June, with an average monthly import of over 10 million tons [1]. - Price and Contract: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2865 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from the previous day. Spot prices have slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the risk of far - month contract price increases, and near - month contract gains are limited. The main contract range is [3000, 3090] [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory and Policy: In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills have decreased, but the short - term supply is sufficient. China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has limited actual positive impact [1][5]. - Market Trend: Influenced by the bullish sentiment in the soybean meal market, rapeseed meal is expected to stop falling and rebound. The main contract range is [2560, 2700] [1]. Palm Oil - International Market: In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increase, but the marginal supply is increasing. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April, and the export tariff has been adjusted [1][8]. - Domestic Market: The commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports are low. The inverted spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has led to light spot trading. The near - month contracts are expected to remain strong before expiration, but the fundamental situation is gradually weakening. The main contract range is [9150, 9350] [1][8]. Cotton - International Situation: The ICE market has declined due to China's tariff counter - measures. The US cotton planting area is slightly lower than expected, and Pakistan's new cotton sowing progress is slow. India's cotton production is expected to decline [1][10]. - Domestic Situation: The domestic cotton planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The soil moisture in the north of Xinjiang is good, while the south may be affected by drought. The downstream demand is weak, and the "peak season is not prosperous" phenomenon persists. The trade barriers have increased the export cost, and the domestic oversupply situation may intensify. The main contract range is [13200, 13600] [1][11]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The short - term arrival volume in the downstream sales areas is large, and the market is in an off - season. Seasonal fresh fruits are squeezing the market share of red dates. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation. The main contract range is [9000, 9300] [1][15]. Live Pigs - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, and the supply of standard pigs is abundant. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the market demand recovery is limited. The main 2505 contract is expected to continue to operate at a low level [1][18]. - Price and Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 13270 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day. Spot prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the future data of piglets for arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year [1][16].