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铜行业周报:贸易冲突拖累铜价,本周线缆开工率环比回升8.2pct-2025-04-07
EBSCN·2025-04-07 06:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sentiment surrounding trade conflicts has a greater impact than the actual effects, with expectations for copper prices to stabilize after sentiment dissipates [1][4]. - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tight balance in 2025, with supply constraints expected to gradually materialize, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,860 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week, while LME copper closed at 8,780 USD/ton, down 10.4% week-on-week [1][17]. - The report notes a significant drop in copper prices due to the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners [1]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 6.2%, while LME copper inventory fell by 1.0% [2][25]. - As of April 3, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 648,000 tons, down 18.3% week-on-week [2][46]. Supply - In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1,122,100 tons, up 6.0% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year [3][65]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 917 CNY/ton as of April 3, 2025, down 1,528 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 8.2 percentage points to 81.06% as of April 3, 2025 [3][75]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, is expected to see production increases of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% in April, May, and June 2025, respectively [3][94]. Futures Market - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions also fell by 12.0% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Minmetals Resources [4][5].