KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 开源证券·2025-04-07 06:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, with a positive outlook for the upcoming years despite a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to a slow recovery in liquor consumption [6][7] - The company reported a total revenue of 174.1 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6][9] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while optimizing its product and channel structures to ensure continued growth [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 92.1%, with a net profit margin of 51.3%, indicating stable profitability [9][11] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 95.6 billion yuan, 105.9 billion yuan, and 114.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% [6][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 76.10 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.6, 18.6, and 17.2 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6][11][14] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 145.9 billion yuan from its flagship liquor and 24.7 billion yuan from its series liquor, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively [7][8] - The wholesale channel outperformed the direct sales channel, with revenues of 95.8 billion yuan and 74.8 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.7% and 11.3% [8][9] Market Strategy - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure to address supply-demand mismatches, expanding beyond traditional distributors to include restaurants, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [8][9] - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable price for its flagship products while increasing market share through enhanced product offerings and strategic channel management [6][7]