汽车和汽车零部件板块跟踪报告：关税冲突升级，汽车及汽车零部件影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the tariff conflict initiated by President Trump, which includes a dual tariff system with a 10% baseline tariff and additional tariffs on imports from countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. [1] - It is noted that the overall tariff on Chinese automotive exports to the U.S. has reached 70%, significantly affecting the industry [1] - The report anticipates that the impact of the tariffs will be greater on auto parts than on complete vehicles, emphasizing the importance of localized production and self-research of core components as key solutions to trade friction [1] Summary by Sections Vehicle Impact - The direct impact of the tariffs on complete vehicles is expected to be minimal, with only 11.6 thousand vehicles exported from China to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 0.4% of total Chinese vehicle sales [2] - The report predicts that the tariff increases may lead to a temporary spike in U.S. consumer vehicle purchases, with a projected 9% year-on-year increase in U.S. vehicle sales in March 2025 [2] Parts Sector - The report estimates that China's automotive parts exports to the U.S. will reach 99.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing 15% of total automotive parts exports [3] - It suggests that companies with manufacturing bases in Mexico are likely to benefit from the current tariff policies, as Mexico is the largest source of automotive imports to the U.S. [3] - The report recommends a global layout for parts manufacturers, prioritizing those with factories in the U.S. and Mexico over those solely based in China [3] Investment Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Xpeng Motors and suggests paying attention to Geely and BYD [4] - For parts manufacturers, it recommends Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Nexperia, while suggesting to keep an eye on Sanhua Intelligent Control [4] - The report includes a profitability forecast and valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for all listed companies [5]