烧碱周报：仓单出现近月合约承压，烧碱下游产业利润面临压缩困境-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall profit of chlor-alkali decreased last week due to the decline in the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda and the increase in the price of liquid chlorine. The current appearance of warehouse receipts in caustic soda futures and the continuous decline in spot prices are expected to strengthen the basis. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US has little impact on caustic soda but a greater impact on its downstream industries, which, combined with the current weak spot price of liquid caustic soda, has a bearish impact on caustic soda futures [7]. Summary by Section Chlor-Alkali Overview - Supply: Last week, the production of liquid caustic soda was 794,800 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The national load is expected to increase first and then decrease, with the weekly average load slightly increasing to about 85%, and the production this week is expected to reach 816,000 tons. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by Shandong alumina enterprises decreased by 94 yuan/ton to 2,438 yuan/ton. The production of viscose staple fiber last week was 81,100 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [7]. - Demand: The operating rate last week was 68.51%, remaining stable from the previous week. In February, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 319,000 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 27,000 tons [7]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda was 474,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. There was a reduction in the inventory of low-concentration caustic soda in Shandong, but an increase in the inventory of high-concentration caustic soda due to poor export order demand [7]. - Profit: Last week, the overall chlor-alkali profit decreased. The chlor-alkali profit in Shandong on Thursday was 557 yuan/ton [7]. - Valuation: The SH5 - 9 spread remained in the range of -168 to -96, the price of futures contract SH05 showed a downward trend, and the basis is expected to strengthen [7]. Chlor-Alkali Prices - Spot Prices: Included price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine, etc., from 2022 to 2025 [11]. - Flake Caustic Soda and Export Prices: Showed price trends of Shandong and Inner Mongolia flake caustic soda, as well as FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 [14]. - Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis: Presented the basis of 32% and 50% caustic soda main contracts in Shandong, SH05 - SH09 spread, and the price trend of the caustic soda main contract from 2023 to 2025 [17]. - Raw Salt and Coal Prices: Displayed price trends of Shandong sea salt, Indian industrial salt CIF, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2021 to 2025 [20]. Caustic Soda Supply - Production, Inventory, and Profit: Showed the production of caustic soda, inventory of liquid caustic soda, and the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [25]. - Chlor-Alkali Plant Maintenance: Listed the maintenance situations of chlor-alkali plants last week and the planned maintenance situations in the future [27]. Chlor-Alkali Demand - Alumina: Included the price, production, and profit trends of Shandong alumina from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing: Showed the weekly production, factory inventory, and price of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate of East China printing and dyeing from 2021 to 2025 [35]. - Pulp and Paper: Presented the production of paper products and the available inventory days of upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 [38]. - Export: Displayed the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of caustic soda from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - Epoxy Propane: Included the price, profit, production, and operating rate trends of Shandong epoxy propane from 2021 to 2025 [44].