关税影响下利率大涨之后的三个演绎路径

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The unexpected tariff policy in April 2025 extended the time window for the domestic bond bull market, and the market's concerns shifted to expectations of a significant decline in the fundamentals and "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in monetary policy [1] - After the yield drops to a certain level, the bond market may enter a period of shock and wait - and - see. There are three possible paths for the market [1][2] - The probability ranking of the three paths is Path 2 > Path 1 > Path 3. The bond market has entered a new long - buying window, and long - term bonds and long - duration credit bonds are cost - effective investment varieties [3] Summary by Related Content Impact of Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - On April 2, 2025, the US "reciprocal tariff" and subsequent Chinese counter - measures exceeded market expectations, leading to a sharp turn in the global financial market towards safe - haven trading. This had an unexpectedly positive impact on the Chinese bond market, with the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds approaching the lowest points of the year [1] Three Market Deduction Paths - Path 1: If the tariff policy is implemented as scheduled this week and monetary and fiscal policies are quickly implemented, there may be a significant decline in yields, followed by a phased "good news realized" market. The interest rate may show a trend of rapid decline followed by a slight rebound in shock, and the yield curve may show a bullish steepening pattern [2] - Path 2: If the tariff policy is implemented as scheduled but monetary and fiscal policies are delayed, the short - term downward pressure on the fundamentals may be huge. The short - term bond downward space is limited, while long - term and ultra - long - term bonds benefit significantly, and the yield curve may show a bullish flattening pattern [2] - Path 3: If China and the US reach a compromise and the implementation time of the tariff policy is postponed, the equity market may have a limited bottom - fishing rebound, and the bond market may have a slight shock callback [2] Investment Suggestions - The probability of negative factors for bonds is currently low. The bond market has entered a new long - buying window, and long - term bonds have a clear investment logic. Long - duration credit bonds are also cost - effective investment varieties [3]