关税对市场冲击的风险提示

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various commodity markets, including the likelihood of price fluctuations, such as hitting daily limits or experiencing significant price changes, and provides insights into the underlying reasons for these movements [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products - 粕类: There is a risk of a sharp increase, with far - month contracts possibly hitting the daily limit. There is a risk of opening at the daily limit for contracts 2509 and 2601 but then falling. It is the strongest agricultural product [1]. - 玉米: There is a risk of price increase, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. It is less affected by tariffs [1]. - 生猪: There is a risk of price increase, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. The impact of the current tariff policy on pork imports is small [1]. - 白糖: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. It is affected by the cost - increasing sentiment from the rise in soybean meal [1]. - 棉花: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - 油脂: There is a significant risk of price decline, but the possibility of hitting the daily limit is not high. It is the weakest agricultural product [1]. Energy and Chemicals - 原油: It may open significantly lower and hit the daily limit. The domestic market has a lower probability of continuous sharp decline compared to other varieties [1]. - PX PTA: It may open lower, with a high probability of hitting the daily limit [1]. - pf pr: It may open lower, close to the daily limit [1]. - PVC: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit [1]. - 烧碱: There is a risk of price decline, but the change in volatility is small [1]. - PP、PE: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - 合成橡胶: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - 天然橡胶: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. It is expected to mainly experience significant declines [1]. - 燃料油、低硫燃料油: FU05 has a risk of hitting the daily limit; LU may decline significantly but may not hit the daily limit. Volatility is expected to increase [1]. - 沥青: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of continuous daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - LPG: There is a risk of price increase, but the increase is expected to be relatively controllable. Post - holiday volatility is expected to increase [1]. - 集运指数（欧线）: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility increases [1]. Precious Metals - 黄金: It fell due to liquidity contraction but has high hedging value. It may still rise after a small decline [1]. - 白银: It was hit by both liquidity contraction and recession expectations and fell rapidly. There is still a risk of further decline [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - 铜: It may open significantly lower and has a high probability of hitting the daily limit. The global consumption growth rate may be adjusted downward [1]. - 铝: It may open lower, with a low probability of hitting the daily limit on Monday. Attention should be paid to the short - selling pressure on high - profit varieties [1]. - 铅: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility increases due to macro - level negatives and the off - season [1]. - 锌: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. Volatility increases due to macro - level negatives and long - term oversupply [1]. - 锡 铁矿石: There is a risk of price decline, but it will not hit the daily limit. Volatility increases, mainly affected by the macro side [1]. Black Metals - 螺纹钢: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 热轧卷板: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 焦煤: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 焦炭: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 硅铁: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 锰硅: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 碳酸锂: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 镍: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. There is a short - term and long - term supply - demand contradiction [1]. New Energy - 工业硅: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases, with weak fundamentals [1]. - 多晶硅: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is small. Volatility increases, but there are concerns about tight delivery resources [1]. - 不锈钢: There is a risk of price decline, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is small. There is a short - term and medium - term supply - demand contradiction [1]. Finance - 国债期货: There is a risk of price increase, but the probability of hitting the daily limit is low. Volatility increases [1]. - 股指期货: There is a risk of price decline, but it is difficult to hit the daily limit. IM and IC will have larger declines. Volatility increases, and the trend depends on tariff policies and domestic policy hedging [1]. Financial Engineering - 期权等应对策略与策略风险提示: In - the - money call options may hit the daily limit down, and in - the - money put options may hit the daily limit up. Volatility jumps [1].