冠通期货资讯早间报-2025-04-07

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures tumbled significantly, with COMEX gold futures down 2.1% at $3,056.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 7.65% at $29.525 per ounce [2]. - International oil prices plunged across the board, with the May contract of US crude down 6.92% at $62.32 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude down 5.93% at $65.98 per barrel [3]. - London base metals all declined, with LME copper down 6.86% at $8,690 per ton and LME zinc down 1.39% at $2,670 per ton [3]. - CBOT agricultural futures had mixed results, with soybean futures down 3.39% at 977.25 cents per bushel and corn futures up 0.66% at 460.5 cents per bushel [3]. 2. Important News Macro News - Negotiations on the Ukraine issue have made significant progress, and the date for the next round of Russia-US negotiations will be determined soon [6]. - Nomura Securities expects the Fed to cut interest rates once in December 2025, reversing its previous prediction [7]. - China firmly opposes the US tariff hikes on imported products and will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate interests [7]. - The National Bureau of Statistics released price changes of important production materials in late March 2025, showing 14 products up, 31 down, and 5 unchanged compared to mid-March [7]. - Traders have increased their bets on Fed rate cuts, fully pricing in a 100-basis-point cut this year [8]. - China will impose additional tariffs on US imports starting from April 10, 2025 [8]. - Fed Chair Powell said the impact of tariffs on the economy may be greater than expected, and the Fed maintains its expectation of two rate cuts in 2025 [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In March 2025, Daqing Oilfield's Sichuan-Chongqing exploration area achieved a monthly natural gas output of over 100 million cubic meters for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 35% [12]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its annual average price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil [12]. - OPEC+ maintained its oil production policy and is discussing compliance with production cut targets and compensation plans [12]. Metal Futures - On April 4, 2025, 30,000 tons of overseas alumina were traded at $330 per ton FOB Western Australia for May shipment [14]. - Trump signed an order to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, which was opposed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers [14]. - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel inventories on the SHFE decreased, while tin inventory increased [16]. - The US added 228,000 non-farm payrolls in March, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% [17]. - Well-known gold brands lowered their gold prices, but the jewelry prices still remained around 1,000 yuan per gram [17]. Black Futures - In April, steel prices may rebound as demand recovers, but cost support is weakening, and external tariff pressure remains a concern [19]. - RANA GRUBER ASA produced 473,000 tons of iron ore concentrate in Q1 [20]. - Vietnam will impose temporary anti-dumping duties on galvanized steel imports from South Korea and other countries starting in mid-April [21]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March 2025 is expected to be 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February [23]. - Canada's rapeseed and wheat exports increased in the week ending March 30 [25]. - China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to exceed 11 million tons [25]. - As of March 28, the number of unpriced sell and buy orders for US cotton increased [25]. - The FAO Food Price Index rose in March, and the global grain output in 2024 was estimated at 2.849 billion tons [25]. - China suspended the import of sorghum, poultry bone meal, and poultry products from some US companies due to quarantine issues [26]. 3. Financial Markets Finance - Brokerage and capital intermediary businesses of securities firms are expected to grow in Q1, driven by increased A-share new accounts and trading volume [28]. - Some wealth management companies have entered the market through stock ETFs, and ETFs are expected to become the mainstream choice for wealth management funds [29]. - As of now, 1,546 fund products have implemented dividends this year, with a total dividend of 67.904 billion yuan [29]. - The number of enhanced index funds submitted this year has increased significantly compared to last year [30]. Real Estate - Ningde, Fujian, revised its housing provident fund policies, canceling the priority repayment limit [31]. Industry - The pre-orders for the AITO M8 exceeded 100,000 units, and it will be launched in mid-April [33]. - Hunan plans to develop a credible data space, aiming for over 500 network nodes by 2028 [33]. - China's export control on rare earths is a measure to maintain world peace and security [33]. Overseas - US tariffs will continue to be implemented in the coming days and weeks [34]. - Vietnam's Q1 GDP grew by 6.93%, slightly lower than expected [35]. - US tariffs may force clothing brands in Vietnam to raise prices [35]. - South Korea plans to provide 3 trillion won in emergency aid to its auto industry [35]. - US car sales soared 11.2% in March as consumers rushed to avoid tariffs [36]. - The US will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese galvanized steel [37]. - Australia will invest 2.3 billion Australian dollars to help homeowners buy solar batteries [38]. - European economic growth may slow down, and the ECB may cut interest rates to below 2% by June [38]. 4. International Stock Markets - BBC accused Apple and Google of weakening its brand influence in news and podcast apps [39]. - Meta launched the open-source AI model Llama 4 [39]. - Toyota plans to launch 15 electric vehicles by 2027 [40]. 5. Commodities - OPEC+ maintained its oil production policy and is discussing production cut compliance and compensation [42]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude for Asia in May at a $1.20 premium [43]. - Gold prices may continue to be supported by trade uncertainties and central bank purchases [43]. - China's export control on rare earths is a measure to maintain world peace and security [43]. - Germany is considering withdrawing its gold reserves from the US due to economic policy uncertainties [43]. 6. Bonds - JPMorgan strategists expect US Treasury prices to rise and the Fed to cut rates at each FOMC meeting until January 2026 [44]. 7. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar fell below 145 against the Japanese yen on Monday, with a 1.29% decline [45].