纯碱玻璃周报：临近主力合约换月节点，警惕纯碱玻璃价格大幅波动-2025-04-07

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the main contract roll - over node, be vigilant about large - scale fluctuations in soda ash and glass prices [1] - Soda ash supply has recovered, and the inventory accumulation rate has increased. Glass production and sales are okay, but terminal demand is poor, and market sentiment is cautious [4][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of soda ash were priced at 1389, 1381, and 1420 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 1, - 12, and - 19. The spot prices of heavy soda ash in different regions also showed some fluctuations [6] - The main contract basis was - 10 [6] Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate increased from 82.38% to 85.09%. The weekly output increased from 69.02 million tons to 71.30 million tons, a rise of 3.30%. The heavy - soda production increased by 5.45%, and the light - soda production increased by 0.84% [7] - Many enterprises had device maintenance. For example, Shandong Haitian started maintenance on October 21, 2024, and the end time was undetermined [25] Demand - The daily output of float glass increased slightly by 0.13%, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 1.75%. The apparent demand for light - soda decreased by 4.33% [7] Inventory - The total inventory of soda ash increased by 4.38% to 170.14 million tons. The heavy - soda inventory increased by 7.54%, and the light - soda inventory increased by 1.42%. The social inventory decreased by 2.81% [7] Profit - The profit of the dual - alkali method decreased by 13.00% to 184.1, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method decreased by 95.00% to - 101.81 [7] Glass Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of glass were priced at 1198, 1198, and 1226 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 8, 1, and - 24. The main contract basis was - 38 [55] Supply - The capacity utilization rate was 75.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.2429. The daily output increased from 15.83 million tons to 15.85 million tons, and the weekly output increased from 110.83 million tons to 110.88 million tons [56] Demand - The apparent demand remained unchanged. Due to some regional sentiment, policy superposition, and price advantages of some enterprises, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and the sales of some enterprises improved [56] Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2% to 6575.7 million heavy boxes, and the inventory of Shahe traders decreased by 9% to 420 million heavy boxes [56] Profit - The profit of natural - gas production increased by 4%, the profit of coal - gas production increased by 14%, and the profit of petroleum - coke production increased by - 123% [56] Potential Factors Soda Ash - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies and commodity market sentiment boost, unexpected device maintenance or load reduction, and energy - consumption policies [8] - Potential negative factors: Significant inventory accumulation in soda - ash plants, unexpected cold - repair of float and photovoltaic glass, and new production devices coming into operation [8] Glass - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies boost the commodity market sentiment, and demand shows seasonal improvement [57] - Potential negative factors: The demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" period falls short of expectations [57] Market Outlook Soda Ash - The supply is expected to increase steadily, which will put some pressure on prices. The soda - ash plants will face the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation [7][8] Glass - The supply will remain stable, and the downstream will enter the digestion stage after this round of replenishment. The sustainability of mid - stream inventory replenishment needs further tracking [57]