美国4月2日关税措施定量测算：对等关税落地，不确定性仍存

Group 1: Tariff Measures Overview - The new tariff measures announced by the U.S. on April 2, 2025, involve "reciprocal tariffs" affecting over $2.3 trillion in imports, accounting for 72% of U.S. total imports[8] - Tariffs on China are set to increase by 34%, while ASEAN countries will see an average increase of 34%, and the EU will face a 20% increase[6] - The current tariff rate on Chinese goods is 31.6%, with the new measures expected to raise it to an effective rate of 32.3%[15] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs are projected to reduce China's total exports by approximately 4.7 percentage points, and considering re-export trade, the total impact could be around 6.3 percentage points[21] - U.S. inflation is expected to rise by 2.6 percentage points due to these tariffs, with consumer goods contributing 2.1 percentage points and capital goods contributing 0.5 percentage points[30] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports is expected to increase by 18.2 percentage points as a result of these measures[27] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The "exemption list" for tariffs includes products like copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, which collectively represent about 20% of U.S. imports[13] - The impact on net exports is expected to be limited, as a decline in exports may also lead to a decrease in imports, creating a "natural hedge" on trade surplus[23] - There is potential for alternative trade opportunities, particularly with the EU, as it may increase imports of Chinese consumer electronics and electrical equipment in response to U.S. tariffs[21]