2026年钢铁行业年度策略 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 3 / 2 / CONTENTS 4 / 1.1 2026年钢铁行业年度策略 4 1 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2018-02 2018-08 2019-02 2019-08 2020-02 2020-08 2021-02 2021-08 2022-02 2022-08 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02 2024-08 2025-02 2025-08 商品房销售面积：单月值（万平方米） 商品房销售面积单月值：同比增速（%，右轴） 商品房销售面积累计值：同比增速（%，右轴） 2 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2018-02 2018-09 2019-04 2019-11 2020-06 2021-01 2021-08 2022-03 2022-10 2023-05 2023-12 2024-07 2025-02 2025-09 房地 ...

金 融 工 程 上周，价值均衡 50组合表现较优，周收益率为 2.28%，相对国证价值的超额为 2.13%。 投资要点： | | | 风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报 （2025.10.27-2025.10.31） 价值均衡 50 组合占优 本报告导读： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 罗蕾(分析师) | | | 021-23185653 | | | luolei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040014 | | | 卓洢萱(分析师) | | | 021-23183938 | | | zhuoyixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040128 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 红利风格择时周报（1027-1031） 2025.11.03 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251102） 2025.11.02 高频选股因子周报（20251027-20251031） 2025.11.02 低频选股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In October 2025, the restart of unprofitable new shares issuance led to an increase in the monthly fundraising amount, and the new shares on the first - day of listing had no break - even, with an average increase of 219%. The new share subscription income remained high, and the "entry" strategy was the optimal one [2]. - The performance of new shares in different sectors and industries varies. The first - day performance of unprofitable new shares on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was excellent, and the choice of restricted - sale plans for unprofitable new shares had a significant impact on income enhancement [11][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Issuance and Listing Rhythm - In October 2025, there were 9 new listings on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, with a total initial public offering (IPO) fundraising of 1.2869 billion yuan. From January to October 2025, there were 87 new listings, and the total fundraising was 9.0172 billion yuan, a 9% increase in the number of new listings and a 71% increase in fundraising compared to the same period in 2024 [2][8]. - The 3 unprofitable new shares listed in October 2025 had a relatively large fundraising volume, driving the monthly fundraising amount to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [2][8]. 2. First - day Gain Performance - In October 2025, the 6 new shares listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were all issued offline. The new shares on the first - day of listing had no break - even, with an average increase of 219%, the same as in September. The average first - day increase of the first 3 unprofitable new shares on the Science and Technology Innovation Board with agreed restricted sales was 158% [2][11]. - Among the new shares on the Main Board in October, Daosheng Tianhe had a first - day increase of 351%, Chaoying Electronics had a first - day increase of 339%, and Marco Polo had a first - day increase of 148% [11]. 3. New Share Subscription Income Calculation - In October 2025, with the support of unprofitable new share income, the monthly new share subscription income remained high. Without considering unprofitable new shares, the new share subscription income of Class A/B accounts in October was 287,700/277,200 yuan respectively. Conservatively, if all 3 unprofitable new shares selected Plan A3, the total monthly full - subscription income of Class A/B was 623,400/608,800 yuan; optimistically, if all 3 unprofitable new shares selected Plan A1, the total monthly full - subscription income of Class A/B was 3,971,500/608,800 yuan [2][17]. 4. New Share Subscription Strategy at the Current Stage - The "entry" strategy is still the optimal one. It is recommended to actively participate in low - price, small - floating - stock new shares with expected first - day gains and large - market - value new shares with a large offline allocation volume. Among the registered but unlisted enterprises, companies such as Moore Threads are worth paying attention to [2][20]. - The performance of new shares in different sectors is affected by various factors. The Main Board new shares have had good performance and high first - day gains since 2023; the Science and Technology Innovation Board new shares are affected by market heat and policy support; the ChiNext Board is recommended to participate in low - price, small - market - value new shares [20].

摘要： | [Table_Authors] | 赵子健(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38032292 | | | zhaozijian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520060003 | | | 王佳(分析师) | | | 010-83939781 | | | wangjia7@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524010001 | | | 蔡晨(分析师) | | | 021-38031023 | | | caichen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080002 | 资讯汇总 [table_Header]2025.11.04 【行业 ESG 周报】中国出台绿色贸易领域首个专项政策文件，上海 发布银发友好型商场建设指引 产业研究中心 [Table_Report] 往期回顾 【双碳周报】全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量 有所下降 2025.10.29 【ESG 投资周报】本月新发 2 只绿色基金，流动 性环比宽松 2025.10.28 【行业 ESG 周报】国家能源局发布一批重点行业 标准，2025 国际能源变革论坛在 ...

IP IP IP IP IP AI 上市公司积极布局海外产能，目前已逐步建立越南等海外地区产能，覆盖美国地区订单。相对而言，海外地区产能在关税税率、 原材料、劳动力及地方产业优惠政策方面具备明显优势 造纸和金属包装行业供给侧有望改善，价格&盈利处于较低水平，反内卷逐步成为大厂共识，价格协同性有望改善，造纸全产 业链价格有望抬升，龙头盈利增厚，金属包装两片罐年底调价，两片罐盈利弹性较大。 2 01 02 03 04 3 / 03 IP IP IP IP IP 2024 1741 2019-2024 13.6% 2029 3358 2024-2029 14.0% 2024 1018 50 304 369 2019-2024 CAGR 15.8% 24.1% 9.2% 11.1% 58% 3% 17% 21% 图：我国泛娱乐产品市场规模（十亿元人民币） 图：我国泛娱乐产品市场规模同比增速 4 03 00 10 IP IP IP 2024 1018 2019- 2024 15.8% 2029 2121 2029 15.8% 2024 58% 2029 63% 图：我国泛娱乐玩具市场规模（十亿元人民币） 图：我国泛娱乐 ...

/ CONTENTS 01 02 03 04 05 2 / 3 / 01 DeepSeek AI 图：Deepseek日活高速增长 图：Deepseek多项基准测试性能对标国际顶尖AI模型 图：豆包日均token用量高速增长 | Benchmarks | DeepSeek-R1- | OpenAl- | Gemini-2.5- | Owen3- | DeepSeek-R1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 0528 | o3 | Pro-0506 | 235B | | | AIME 2024 数学资源 pass@1 | 91.4 | 91.6 | 90.8 | 85.7 | 79.8 | | AIME 2025 数学見賽 pass@1 | 87.5 | 88.9 | 83.0 | 81.5 | 70.0 | | GPQA Diamond 科学测试 pass@1 | 81.0 | 83.3 | 83.0 | 71.1 | 71.5 | | LiveCodeBench 代码生成 pass@1 | 73.3 | 77.3 | 71.8 | 66.5 | 63.5 ...

摘要： 产业专题 [table_Header]2025.11.04 深圳国资系上市公司沙河股份拟并购晶华电子，推动地产业务转型 产业研究中心 ——产业并购跟踪 13 期 [Table_Summary] 深圳国资系上市公司沙河股份拟并购晶华电子，推动地产业务转型 四地燃气资产筹划注入胜利股份 胜利股份（000407.SZ）拟发行股份及支付现金购买由公司控股股东 及其关联方控制的燃气类相关资产，并募集配套资金。交易标的包 括中油燃气（珠海横琴）有限公司 100%的股权、天达胜通新能源 （珠海）有限公司 100%的股权、南通中油燃气有限责任公司 51% 的股权以及青海中油甘河工业园区燃气有限公司 40%的股权。 作为中油燃气集团控股子公司，胜利股份自 2011 年布局天然气产 业后，已形成以燃气业务为核心的清洁能源产业格局，业务覆盖全 产业链关键环节，且处于持续扩张与升级阶段。本次交易涉及四个 地区的燃气资产，有利于集团盘活并整合体系内相关资产。 风险提示：项目因商业条款未达成一致或未通过审核等原因终止。 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 肖洁(分析师) | | | 0 ...

[Table_Summary] 1、【电子研究】电子元器件：DeepSeek 开源 AI 补齐产业链短板 2、【海外科技研究】海外科技：AI 与数据中心建设引领半导体产业加速升级，新技术和投资竞赛 持续升温。 3、【交通运输研究】中国国航：2025Q3 公商意外走弱对公司影响大于行业，公司仍实现大额盈 利并连续三年超过 19Q3，展现盈利韧性与上行潜力。控股股东拟认购大额定增，将加速资本结 构优化。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 国泰海通晨报 2025 年 11 月 04 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 舒迪(分析师) 021-38676666 shudi@gtht.com S0880521070002 王美懿(研究助理) 021-38031385 wangmeiyi@gtht.com S0880124070042 秦和平(分析师) 0755-23976666 qinheping@gtht.com S08 ...

产销量有所回落，未来弹性和成长可期 晋控煤业(601001) 晋控煤业 2025 年三季报业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： Q3 煤炭产销量有所回落，吨煤售价提高略低于预期；参股同忻煤矿扭亏为盈，行业 压力最大时刻已过；集团资产注入贡献成长，分红率连续 3 年提高。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 15,342 | 15,033 | 12,294 | 12,929 | 13,234 | | (+/-)% | -4.6% ...

看好智能悬架海外市场前景 保隆科技(603197) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 石佳艺(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shijiayi@gtht.com | S0880525070001 | 本报告导读： 保隆科技 2025 前三季度业绩承压，看好公司智能悬架海外市场前景。维持"增持" 评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 5,897 | 7,025 | 8,390 | 9,903 | 11,541 | | (+/-)% | 23.4% | 19.1% | 19.4% | 18.0% | 16.5% | | 净利润(归母) | 379 | 303 ...