CBC(600132) 浦银国际证券·2025-04-07 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is making progress in adjusting its product and channel structure, with expectations for more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product Uusu [1][5][11]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the proportion of on-premise sales decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-premise channels in 2025 through new product launches and marketing innovations [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][9][10].