美国对等关税落地点评：中国对等反制，降息降准或加速落地

Trade Policy Actions - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs to address the significant annual trade deficit with various countries[3] - The additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. are all above 10%, with China facing a 34% tariff, the EU 20%, and Japan 24%[3] - The average most-favored-nation tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to exceed 7.5% for China and 5% for the EU after these tariffs are implemented[3] Economic Impact - The Trump administration claims that the additional tariffs will have minimal impact on inflation and will significantly boost domestic manufacturing[4] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices fell approximately 10%, and the 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 19 basis points[5] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 2.19% from April 2 to April 3, indicating a potential increase in risk aversion among investors[5] Market Reactions - Gold prices initially rose by 2.02% before the executive order but fell by 2.53% in the subsequent days[5] - The domestic bond market showed bullish trends, with the 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.76% from April 2 to April 3[6] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced declines, with the Wande All A and Hang Seng indices dropping by 0.76% and 1.52%, respectively[6] Future Outlook - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S., effective April 10, 2025, in response to U.S. tariffs[6] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions by the Chinese central bank is increasing as a countermeasure to the tariffs[6] - The performance of capital markets will ultimately depend on economic fundamentals and monetary policy responses[6]