“关税”冲击商品市场，黑色系整体承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The "tariff" has impacted the commodity market, putting overall pressure on the black series. Although the steel market's supply - demand fundamentals have minor contradictions, influenced by macro - sentiment and expected weakening exports, steel prices are still in the bottom - seeking stage with large short - term fluctuations. All varieties in the black series are under pressure, and unilateral operations should be carried out with caution [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Steel prices are under pressure due to weakening macro - sentiment. Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar inventory slightly increased, while that of hot - rolled coils slowed down. The "reciprocal tariff" led to strong market wait - and - see sentiment, pressuring the market and widening the basis [9]. - Examples of price changes: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton; the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 yuan/wet ton [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - Production: National rebar weekly output was 228.65 million tons (up 0.54% MoM, 8.91% YoY), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 322.7 million tons (down 0.63% MoM, 0.89% YoY). Rebar blast - furnace output increased, while electric - furnace output decreased [14][18]. - Profit: Rebar profit was +118 yuan/ton (up 2.61% MoM, down 0.84% YoY), and hot - rolled coil profit was +92 yuan/ton (up 17.95% MoM, down 59.29% YoY) [27]. - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption was 249.69 million tons (up 1.78% MoM, down 12.88% YoY), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 332.32 million tons (down 1.88% MoM, up 0.57% YoY) [32]. - Inventory: Rebar total inventory was 798.07 million tons (down 2.57% MoM, 30.91% YoY), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 386.34 million tons (down 2.43% MoM, 9.40% YoY) [37][42]. - Downstream: In the real - estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 45.36% MoM and increased by 24.18% YoY in the lunar calendar. In the automotive sector, in February 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.103 million and 2.129 million respectively, down 14.1% and 12.2% MoM, and up 39.6% and 34.4% YoY [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons (down 9.62% MoM, 11.18% YoY), and the arrival volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 21.887 million tons (down 2.45% MoM, 10.19% YoY) [56]. - Demand: Daily hot - metal production was 2.3873 million tons (up 14,500 tons MoM, 151,500 tons YoY), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 3.1756 million tons (up 1.39% MoM, down 1.77% YoY) [60]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 iron - ore ports was 144.6841 million tons (down 0.36% MoM, up 0.11% YoY), and the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 91.7172 million tons (up 0.67% MoM, down 1.17% YoY) [65]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The domestic coking coal mine operating rate slightly increased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level. The coking coal mine operating rate was 86.32% (up 1.84% MoM, 1.74% YoY), and the coal - washing plant operating rate was 60.77% (down 1.97% MoM, 10.86% YoY) [71]. - Coking Enterprise Situation: The profit of independent coking plants per ton of coke was - 53 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton MoM, up 72 yuan/ton YoY), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.68% (up 1.08% MoM, 12.46% YoY) [79]. - Inventory: Independent coking plants' coking coal inventory was 7.2993 million tons (up 5.62% MoM, 8.35% YoY), and coking coal port inventory was 3.4756 million tons (down 4.16% MoM, up 63.21% YoY). Independent coking plants' coke inventory was 663,700 tons (down 4.76% MoM, up 4.73% YoY), and coke port inventory was 2.1713 million tons (up 0.94% MoM, 14.65% YoY) [85][91]. - Spot Price: Coking coal prices slightly increased, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,290 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton MoM, down 560 yuan/ton YoY) [97]. 5. Spread Analysis - Rebar basis widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts slightly widened. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts slightly widened [100][107].