中原期货晨会纪要-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on global capital markets, with sharp declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Saudi All-Share Index [7]. - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025, which is expected to affect the market sentiment of related products [12][19]. - The global manufacturing recovery is weakening, while China's consumer market is showing positive momentum in the first quarter [8]. - The performance of various commodities and financial markets is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and investors need to pay attention to risks and opportunities [12][13][14][15][18][19][20] Summary by Directory Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Stock Indices: On April 7, 2025, compared with April 6, major global stock indices generally declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped by 5.503% to 38314.86, the Nasdaq Index fell by 5.817% to 15587.79, and the S&P 500 decreased by 5.975% to 5074.08. The Hang Seng Index declined by 1.520% to 22849.81 [2]. - Currencies: The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 7.916% to 1.62, the US dollar index dropped by 0.415% to 102.49, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.30 [2]. - Commodities: Most commodities showed price declines. For example, COMEX gold decreased by 2.613% to 3056.10, COMEX silver fell by 7.518% to 29.53, and LME copper dropped by 7.223% to 8690.00. However, CBOT corn rose by 0.436% to 460.50 [2]. Macro - Economic News - Global Market Impact: The US tariff policy has led to significant drops in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling more than 10% and 11% respectively in two days. Saudi All - Share Index tumbled 6.78%, and Saudi Aramco's market value evaporated about $90 billion [7]. - Upcoming Events: China will impose a 34% tariff on US goods starting from April 10; the EU plans to take comprehensive counter - measures against US tariffs; inflation data of China and the US in March will be released; the US earnings season will start; and the 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecology Conference will be held in Nanjing [7]. - China's Economic Situation: China is strengthening its opening - up legal system, attracting more international investors. The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's consumer market showed positive momentum in the first quarter, with the offline consumption heat index increasing by 14.2% year - on - year [8]. - Regional Economic Developments: In Zhejiang, manufacturing investment increased significantly from January to February. Hunan Province plans to develop a credible data space, aiming to have over 500 network nodes by 2028 [9]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is in a stalemate. With the tariff on US goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meals [12]. - Oils and Fats: The tariff on US imports is expected to drive the oil and meal market to be bullish [12]. - Sugar: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term buying on dips is recommended, but attention should be paid to the resistance at 6200 and the risk of price correction [12]. - Corn: The price has shown a stable rebound. Buying on dips is suggested, but beware of port inventory pressure and weak spot price follow - up [12]. - Hogs: The spot price is stable, and the futures contract is in a discount state, oscillating between 13500 - 14000. A 5 - 10 positive spread can be considered [12][14]. - Eggs: The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the price changes around holidays [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The 2505 contract may continue to be weak, but beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [14]. - Urea: The price is stable with a slight weakness. The UR2505 contract is expected to trade between 1840 - 1930 yuan/ton. Unilateral operations should be cautious [14]. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the US tariff policy, the prices of copper and aluminum have weakened. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][14][15]. - Alumina: The 2505 contract is expected to be weak, and beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [15]. - Steel Products: The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The prices of steel products may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3200 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [15]. - Ferroalloys: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to continue weak oscillations [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices may face pressure due to tariff sentiment, and they are in a weak oscillation at low levels [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is in a weak oscillation. Short positions are recommended, but beware of over - decline rebound [15][16]. Options and Financial Markets - Stock Market Performance: On April 3, A - share indices closed lower. The US tariff policy has put pressure on the A - share market. The domestic market may remain weak in the short - term. Before a significant bottom - out with heavy trading volume, short - term volatility strategies can be considered; otherwise, combination arbitrage strategies of IF/IH and IC/IM can be used [18][19][20].