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A股策略周报:调整带来布局机会,内需崛起正当其时-2025-04-07
东兴证券·2025-04-07 08:20

Core Viewpoints - Short-term tariff shocks from the US-China trade war present mid-term layout opportunities, with the market facing pressure but structural opportunities existing [3][5] - The market's short-term adjustment is expected to stabilize around 3300 points, with strong support near the previous low of 3140 points [3][5] - The direction of the index in the medium term will depend on the developments in the tariff war and domestic policy adjustments [3][5] Domestic Demand Rise - In the context of the trade war, domestic policy direction becomes crucial, with anticipated measures including interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, and increased fiscal stimulus [4][6] - Focus will shift to domestic demand sectors, particularly in services, new energy, and military industry, as well as cyclical industries benefiting from investment [4][6] - Major sectors for this year include big technology and consumer sectors, with big technology expected to drive new economic momentum [4][6] Investment Recommendations - In light of ongoing tariff negotiations and global market volatility, a defensive approach is advised, with a focus on reducing positions and prioritizing cash [6] - Key sectors to watch include traditional low-valuation, high-dividend industries such as banking, home appliances, transportation, and public utilities [6] - Attention should also be given to domestic demand sectors and the domestic substitution chain, particularly companies with self-controlled supply chains like Huawei [6] Weekly Data - The market experienced significant adjustments, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Composite Index showing the largest declines [7] - Most industries saw notable declines, with only the biopharmaceutical sector performing well [10] Valuation Levels - Overall valuation levels remain reasonable, except for the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which has seen a significant increase [18] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of industry valuations, highlighting sectors such as agriculture, basic chemicals, and defense with varying price-to-earnings ratios [19][20]