ACC(SH:600585) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-07 08:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.498 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 42.27% [2][4][10]. - The expected performance for 2025-2026 is projected to be 9.2 billion yuan and 10.1 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 14 and 13 times [6][10]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend and share buyback amounting to no less than 50% of the annual net profit for the next three years [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's self-produced cement sales volume was 26.8 million tons, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, which is better than the industry average decline of 9.5% [10]. - The average revenue per ton of self-produced cement was 246 yuan, down 28 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the average cost per ton was 187 yuan, down 18 yuan per ton year-on-year [10]. - The overall expenses for the year were 9.448 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a smaller decline compared to the main sales volume [10]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - In 2024, the company had capital expenditures of 15.619 billion yuan, increasing clinker capacity by 2.3 million tons and cement capacity by 8 million tons [10]. - By the end of 2024, the company had a clinker capacity of 27.4 million tons and a cement capacity of 40.3 million tons [10]. Market Outlook - Despite pressure on demand, supply is expected to provide support, and prices may still have some elasticity. The company anticipates that the price and profit margins may improve due to strong coordination among leading enterprises [10]. - The company expects to release higher performance growth in Q2 2025, supported by a low profit base from the previous year and current low coal prices [10].