宏观深度报告：利率，行至何处？

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Initiatives - Since the beginning of 2025, government debt net financing reached CNY 2.39 trillion, which is CNY 1.49 trillion higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Major project investments in January-February 2025 increased by nearly 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong start for fiscal spending[10] - Infrastructure investment growth in January-February 2025 improved by 2.5 percentage points to 10% compared to December 2024[10] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The actual loan interest rate remains high at 4%, reflecting ongoing low price levels that necessitate proactive monetary policy[21] - The divergence between interbank funding rates and policy rates has widened, leading to increased funding costs for commercial banks, which hampers the reduction of financing costs for the real economy[15] - The central bank's gradual approach to rate cuts contrasts with historical precedents where more aggressive actions were taken to stabilize investment returns[30] Group 3: Economic Recovery and Interest Rate Adjustments - A significant reduction in interest rates is required to stimulate internal economic momentum, as current corporate investment returns have not stabilized[30] - If the government bond financing costs remain unchanged from last year, interest payments could increase by over CNY 190 billion, surpassing the savings from debt replacement[43] - The proportion of government debt interest payments to total fiscal revenue is projected to rise to 9.1% in 2025, up from 7.8% in 2024, indicating increasing fiscal pressure[43]