债市跟踪周报20250407：利率债基久期重回拉升-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report mainly analyzes the bond market situation in the week of April 7, 2025, including the changes in wealth management scale, bond market leverage ratio, bond fund duration, and bond issuance progress [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Wealth Management Scale Increased by Over 50 Billion Yuan Week-on-Week - After the quarter-end, funds flowed back to wealth management institutions, driving the recovery of the wealth management scale. As of April 6, the week-on-week increase was 518.7 billion yuan, reaching 29.5 trillion yuan. The scale of fixed-income and cash management wealth management products increased significantly [1][9]. - The newly issued scale of wealth management products decreased slightly compared with the previous week. The performance comparison benchmarks of most newly issued products declined, while the average annualized yield of wealth management products increased slightly, and the net value breakage rate continued to decline [15][18]. 2. The Leverage Ratio of the Interbank Bond Market Continued to Rise - The leverage ratio of the interbank bond market increased slightly this week. After the quarter-end disturbances subsided, the interbank liquidity improved significantly, and the level of bank fund lending continued to rise. As of April 3, the interbank bond market leverage ratio was 107.4%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [2][22]. - The leverage ratio of the exchange bond market fluctuated at a high level. As of April 3, it was 124.6%, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [2][22]. 3. The Duration of Interest Rate Bond Funds Resumed to Rise - This week, the bond market priced in the implementation of the tariff policy and speculated on the central bank's hedging measures. The 10-year treasury bond yield dropped to 1.72%. On the one hand, the unexpected implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy increased market risk aversion, which was beneficial to the bond market. On the other hand, after the quarter-end, the funding situation eased, and the market's expectation of the central bank's loose hedging policy increased, leading to a significant recovery in the bond market [3][25]. - The duration of interest rate bond funds increased this week. As of April 3, the median duration of partial interest rate bond funds was 3.74 years, up 0.18 years from the previous week; the median duration of pure interest rate bond funds was 3.82 years, up 0.22 years from the previous week. The duration of credit bond funds also increased slightly [3][28][30]. 4. The Issuance Progress of Replacement Bonds Reached 72.5% - From April 7 - 11, 2025, the disclosed planned issuance of interest rate bonds was 232.9 billion yuan, with a net financing of -612.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of -574.6 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds was 201.9 billion yuan, with a net financing of 163.9 billion yuan; the issuance of policy bank bonds was 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of -202 billion yuan [4][34]. - As of April 3, the total issuance and planned issuance scale of replacement bonds this year was 1.4507 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 72.5%. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 34.9%, and that of new special bonds was 21.8% [4][36][40]. 5. The Issuance Plan of Local Bonds in Q2 2025 - As of April 3, 2025, 28 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government had disclosed their Q2 local government bond issuance plans, with a total planned issuance scale of 1.9793 trillion yuan. In April, May, and June, the planned issuance scales were 777 billion yuan, 538.4 billion yuan, and 663.8 billion yuan respectively [5][44]. - By region, the top three regions in terms of the planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q2 2025 were Hunan (247.6 billion yuan), Shandong (191.7 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (168.2 billion yuan); the top three regions in terms of the planned issuance scale of refinancing special bonds were Guizhou (83.1 billion yuan), Yunnan (65.5 billion yuan), and Hunan (65.3 billion yuan) [44].