有色金属行业对等关税政策点评：市场情绪高度挥发，金属行业定价有望展现强韧性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the metal industry pricing is expected to demonstrate resilience despite high market volatility, driven by recent tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - The copper market is experiencing downward adjustments due to recession expectations, but a tight supply-demand balance is likely to support copper pricing resilience [2] - Gold prices have seen an increase of 18% year-to-date, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, although short-term adjustments are anticipated due to market reactions to tariff policies [3][10] - The implementation of export controls on heavy rare earths by China is expected to lead to a bullish outlook for rare earth prices, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [11] Summary by Sections Copper Market - The copper market is facing downward pressure due to recession fears, with a significant increase in the price differential between COMEX and LME copper [2] - The global copper supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight in 2025, with processing fees for imported copper concentrate dropping to -26.4 USD/ton, indicating a significant supply shortage [2] - China's refined copper production is projected to reach a record high of 13.644 million tons in 2024, supported by favorable processing fees and high by-product prices [2] Gold Market - Gold prices are under short-term pressure due to increased market fear following the implementation of the tariff policy, but inflationary pressures may boost gold's inflation premium [3][10] - The geopolitical risk index is at a near-historic high, which may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][10] Rare Earth Market - China's recent export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earths are expected to significantly impact overseas supply and drive prices upward [11] - The export quota growth for rare earths in China has slowed to 5.9%, the lowest in six years, indicating tighter supply conditions [11]