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城投择券专题:“自审自发”后,专项债给了谁?
Minsheng Securities·2025-04-07 10:46
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance of new special-purpose bonds in 2025, analyzes which urban investment platforms have received the bonds, whether there is financing substitution, and the performance of the outstanding bonds of urban investment platforms that have received the bonds [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025, How is the Issuance of Special-Purpose Bonds? - As of March 31, 2025, the issuance of new special-purpose bonds this year is 960.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 22%. The issuance scale is higher than that in 2024, but the overall progress is still relatively slow compared with 2022 and 2023 [10]. - This year, 843 billion yuan of ordinary special-purpose bonds and 117.2 billion yuan of special new special-purpose bonds have been issued [11]. - In 2025, urban and rural construction and transportation construction remain the key directions for special-purpose bonds. Land reserve special-purpose bonds were restarted this year [15]. 3.2 2025, Which Urban Investment Platforms Have Received Special-Purpose Bonds? - As of March 21, 2025, since 2019, a total of 2,513 bond-issuing urban investment platforms across the country have received special-purpose bond projects. Among them, 587 bond-issuing urban investment platforms have received special-purpose bond projects since 2025, including 4 first-time recipients in 2025 and 248 in 2024 [19]. - In terms of administrative levels, district-level and prefecture-level cities are the main recipients, accounting for 42% and 30% respectively. In terms of subject ratings, AA+ and AA subjects account for a relatively large proportion, accounting for 32% and 46% respectively [23]. - Since 2019, self-review and self-issuance provinces such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan have more bond-issuing urban investment platforms in undertaking special-purpose bond projects, significantly more than non-self-review and self-issuance provinces. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Chongqing have more than 100 bond-issuing urban investment platforms, accounting for more than 60% of all bond-issuing urban investment platforms [22]. - In terms of the scale of special-purpose bond funds obtained by different urban investment platforms, prefecture-level city urban investment platforms have the highest scale, followed by district-level and municipality-level platforms. The scale of special-purpose bond funds obtained by AA urban investment platforms is much smaller than that of AAA urban investment platforms [28][29]. - For urban investment projects in districts and counties with relatively weak financial resources, the importance of special-purpose bond funds is significantly higher [31]. - Self-review and self-issuance provinces have a larger overall scale of special-purpose bond funds than non-self-review and self-issuance provinces. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, Chongqing's urban investment platforms received nearly 20 billion yuan in special-purpose bond funds in 2025, and Hubei's urban investment platforms received more than 10 billion yuan [35][36]. 3.3 Does Receiving Special-Purpose Bonds Have Financing Substitution? - Before 2023, the net financing of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds was significantly higher than that of those that did not. However, since 2024, due to the large overall maturity scale of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds, the net financing of these platforms has declined significantly, and this trend continued in 2025 [50]. - In self-review and self-issuance provinces, the net financing of urban investment platforms has declined in the past two years, and the net financing of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds is weaker than that of those that did not. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, the net financing of most provinces' urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds was better than that of those that did not in 2025 [54]. - In self-review and self-issuance provinces, the growth rate of interest-bearing debt of urban investment platforms declined in 2024, and the growth rate of most urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds was lower than that of those that did not. In non-self-review and self-issuance provinces, the growth rate of interest-bearing debt in some provinces still increased [55]. 3.4 How is the Performance of the Outstanding Bonds of Urban Investment Platforms that Have Received Special-Purpose Bonds? - A total of 1,355 urban investment platforms with outstanding bonds participated in receiving special-purpose bonds this year. The scale of the outstanding bonds of urban investment platforms that received special-purpose bonds this year is 8.7 trillion yuan, of which about 95% of the outstanding bonds of urban investment platforms have a valuation of less than 3%, and 5% have a valuation of more than 3% [57]. - In terms of credit spreads, the proportions of credit spreads within 50bp, 50-100bp, 100-200bp, and 200-300bp are 22%, 64%, 13%, and 1% respectively [57]. - Bonds with slightly higher valuations are mostly private placement bonds, or those with a subject rating of AA or below, or those with a longer term. A list of public bonds in 2025 that have received special-purpose bonds, with a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a credit spread of more than 150BP is provided for market reference [60].