每周经济观察海外周报第85期：对等关税后的股汇表现有无规律？-2025-04-07

Global Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a widespread decline, with the largest drop in the U.S. market; the Nasdaq index fell by 11.4%, entering a technical bear market[12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased by 2.2%, significantly less than the average decline in developed markets[12] - Major developed markets saw a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, with U.S. yields falling the most by 19 basis points (bps)[13] Currency and Commodity Trends - In the global currency market, the Japanese yen and euro appreciated by 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8%[19] - Commodity prices generally declined, with COMEX silver dropping by 15.3%, WTI crude oil by 13.6%, and COMEX copper by 12.9%[20] Impact of Tariffs on Stock and Currency - Following the announcement of unexpected tariffs by Trump, risk assets like stocks and currencies showed significant pullbacks; among 38 currency samples, 13 appreciated while 25 depreciated[28] - The average decline in developed economies' currencies was -0.8%, compared to -0.3% in non-developed markets[56] - There appears to be a positive correlation between the level of reciprocal tariff rates and currency performance, with higher tariffs correlating to better currency performance[5] Economic Indicators - U.S. financial conditions index fell below zero, indicating tighter financial conditions, worse than during the previous year's market turmoil[81] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were better than expected, with 219,000 claims reported against an expectation of 225,000[75] - The U.S. mortgage rate remained stable at 6.64%, with a slight decrease in mortgage application indices[70]