月度策略：保持成长与红利均衡配置-2025-04-07

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment continues to maintain a loose tone, with the government emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy in the 2025 government work report [5][11] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated that it would consider reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [12][11] - In March, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, indicating a recovery in economic momentum, while the non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 50.8% [13][11] Group 2: Market and Industry Performance - In March, the value style index performed well, with mid-cap value increasing by 2.33%, large-cap value by 1.82%, and small-cap value by 1.39% [48] - The top-performing industries in March included non-ferrous metals (7.75%), home appliances (4.32%), and coal (3.63%), while the worst performers were communication (-3.84%) and computer (-5.43%) [61] - The net financing amount in March showed positive changes in non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and electric power equipment industries [61] Group 3: April Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high dividend yield assets with defensive characteristics, such as banks, coal, and public utilities, while also seizing strategic allocation opportunities in the technology sector due to valuation adjustments [66][67] - The government has introduced a special action plan to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, which includes measures to stabilize the stock and real estate markets [66] - The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, which imposes a 34% additional tariff on Chinese exports, is expected to affect industries with high foreign trade dependence [66][67] Group 4: Monetary Credit Framework - The monetary credit framework categorizes economic cycles into four stages: loose monetary-tight credit (recession), loose monetary-loose credit (recovery), tight monetary-loose credit (overheating), and tight monetary-tight credit (stagflation) [70] - In the loose monetary-loose credit phase, upstream resources, consumption, and technology growth industries tend to outperform [71] - The report indicates that the monetary credit framework has shown high effectiveness in predicting bond market trends, while its correlation with stock market trends has been less consistent [78]