东兴证券晨报-2025-04-07

Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The copper market is experiencing downward adjustments due to recession expectations, but supply-demand tightness supports pricing resilience [1] - In 2025, global copper supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight, with a significant shortage in copper concentrate processing fees indicating potential production cuts [1] - China's refined copper production is projected to reach a record high of 13.644 million tons in 2024, benefiting from high TC long-term contract prices and strong by-product sulfuric acid prices [1] Group 2: Gold Market - London spot gold prices have risen 18% to $3,055 per ounce in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [2] - The introduction of equal tariff policies may exacerbate inflation, which could boost gold's inflation premium [5] - The gold pricing trend is expected to continue upward, with potential to reach $3,300 per ounce as market sentiment improves [5] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry - China's recent export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths are expected to lead to stronger pricing dynamics in the industry [6] - The export quota growth for rare earths in China has significantly slowed, indicating a tightening supply situation [6] - Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earth imports is highlighted, with 77% of its monthly imports coming from China, suggesting potential impacts on Japan's market [6] Group 4: Agriculture Sector - The recent U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports, including agricultural products, are expected to raise prices and alter supply dynamics [19][20] - The agricultural sector is likely to benefit from rising domestic demand and the need for food security, prompting a shift towards domestic production [21] - Companies in the agricultural sector, particularly those involved in breeding and feed production, are recommended for investment due to their potential to capitalize on these changes [21] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The U.S. has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese chemical exports, which may impact demand for certain products but overall effects are expected to be limited [23][24] - Specific exemptions for certain chemicals may mitigate the impact of tariffs on some sectors within the chemical industry [23] - The pricing and supply of chemical products may be affected by increased costs of imported raw materials from the U.S. [24] Group 6: Transportation Sector - The new tariffs are expected to pressure import and export freight volumes, particularly affecting container shipping and air freight [27][30] - The cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages will lead to increased costs for air freight, impacting demand [30] - There is a recommendation to focus on domestic demand and emerging markets as companies adapt to the new trade environment [30] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The new tariffs are anticipated to accelerate domestic policies aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation in the machinery sector [32][33] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in low-altitude economy and deep-sea technology sectors as a response to tariff impacts [33] - The focus on new productivity measures may lead to increased support for industries involved in advanced manufacturing and automation [32]