棉花：美棉触及历史低位，郑棉大跌跌下13100

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, oscillating around the 13,000 - yuan mark. Attention should be paid to downstream and order situations, as well as domestic and tariff policies [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The closing price of the main 2505 contract of Zhengzhou cotton dropped 3.11% to 13,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. ICE US cotton fell 2.27% overnight to 63.33 cents/pound. Affected by tariff policies, US cotton hit a four - year low, and Zhengzhou cotton futures opened and closed lower. The commodity market had many varieties hitting the daily limit down, with the chemical sector being severely affected and most of the agricultural products sector declining [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On April 3, the US announced a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods, and on April 4, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports. This tariff escalation may reshape the global cotton textile production and sales structure, leading to a bearish market sentiment. Cotton prices are likely to continue their weak performance in the short term [3][4]. - In the 2025/26 season (August - July), Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase by 2.9% to 2.13 million hectares, with a record - high output of 17.8 million bales (3.87 million tons). Exports are expected to reach 13.9 million bales (3 million tons), a 3.7% increase from the 2024/25 season [4]. - As of April 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was 4.4201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,700 tons (2.94%). Xinjiang's commodity cotton inventory decreased by 157,600 tons (4.31%) to 3.5 million tons, while the inland inventory increased by 26,100 tons (7.17%) to 389,900 tons. The downstream textile mills' operation is stable, with mostly rigid - demand purchases and limited large orders. The cotton bale delivery volume is relatively stable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline next week [5][6]. - On April 7, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 12,702 (- 51) sheets, including 9,390 (+ 127) registered warehouse receipts and 3,312 (- 178) effective forecasts [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][12][13][15]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff - imposing measures have led to a protectionist resurgence, causing other countries to reduce trade with the US. Domestically, the impact of tariff policies will continue, and the weak trend of Zhengzhou cotton will not change in the short term. It is uncertain whether Zhengzhou cotton can hold the 13,000 - yuan mark. Overall, it is expected to oscillate around this mark in the short term, and attention should be paid to domestic and tariff policies [17].