油脂：宏观前景堪忧，油脂整体下行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is worrying, and the overall trend of oils and fats is downward. Internationally, the US tariff war leads to a poor outlook for US soybean exports, CBOT soybean futures decline, and Brazilian soybean premiums rise. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year. Domestically, the dependence on US soybeans is decreasing, the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic, and soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [1][19] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro and Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, China announced reciprocal tariffs, raising the tariff on imported US soybeans to 47% [2] - Analysts predict that the global 2024/25 soybean ending inventory will be 122.07 million tons, with a forecast range of 121 - 123 million tons, higher than the USDA's March estimate [2] - In March, the total soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 6.21 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and 1.03 million tons from the same period last year. In early April, the soybean inventory of oil mills was still tight, and the imported soybean arrivals are expected to increase in late April, with the April crushing volume about 6.5 million tons [2] - The market expects that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of March will reach 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. The March crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the previous month, and the export volume is estimated to be 1.022 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific data analysis content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the US tariff war causes the CBOT soybean futures market to decline, and Brazilian soybeans benefit. The global economic outlook worsens, and Malaysian palm oil breaks through the low at the beginning of the year [19] - Domestically, the impact of the tariff war on the supply of imported soybeans is limited, but the demand outlook for domestic oils and fats is more pessimistic. Soybean oil is expected to decline under pressure. The supply - demand weakness of domestic palm oil continues, and rapeseed oil temporarily corrects following other oils [19]