华金期货生猪周报-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, while the demand recovers relatively slowly. Affected by the Sino-US trade game, the overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the live pig price is relatively firm due to the support from the feed side. The overall trend of live pig prices is mainly consolidation. It is recommended to wait and see for now, pay attention to the later development of the trade game, and relevant enterprises are advised to carry out hedging operations according to their business conditions. The main contract is gradually shifting to LH2509, and investors should pay attention to the rollover risk [3] Summary by Directory I. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: LH2505 closed at 13,270, up 45 or 0.3%; LH2507 closed at 13,480, up 40 or 0.3%; LH2509 closed at 13,860, down 140 or -1.0% [3][7] - Spot prices: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter was 14.54 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan or 0.2%; the price in Henan was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.1% [3][7] II. Inter-month Spread, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 07-05 spread was 210, down 5; the 09-05 spread was 590, down 185 [12] - Basis: The basis for the May contract was 1350, down 35; the basis for the July contract was 1140, down 30 [12] - Warehouse receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 65 [3][12] III. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows and commercial pigs is presented in the report, and it is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in April may continue to increase month-on-month [15][21] - Inventory structure: The proportion of different weight ranges of live pigs is shown, and the price of weaned piglets is 533.33 yuan/head, up 4.76 yuan/head. It is expected that the price will remain stable at a high level in the short term. The price of 50KG binary sows is 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week, and the inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [20][21] V. Standard-Fat Spread - National average: The weekly average standard-fat spread was -0.32 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.15 yuan/kg compared with last week. The prices of standard and fat pigs both declined, and the price of fat pigs decreased more significantly due to weakened demand with rising temperatures [24][25] - Regional differences: The standard-fat spread in various regions showed different degrees of change, with most regions narrowing [25] VI. Slaughter End - Slaughter rate: The weekly slaughter rate was 27.20%, up 0.6 percentage points. The market supply is sufficient, but the sales of white-striped pork are affected by downstream price pressure [28] - Fresh sales rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 89.4%, slightly down 0.04 percentage points [28] - Frozen storage rate: The frozen storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.26%, up 0.12 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the fresh sales rate will fluctuate slightly and the frozen storage rate will continue to rise moderately [28] VII. White-striped Pork and Wholesale Market - White-striped pork price: The price of the top three grades of white-striped pork and the difference between live pig and white-striped pork prices are presented in the report [29] - Consumption situation: The comparison of the average wholesale prices of related meats shows the consumption situation of pork [35][36] VIII. Profit and Cost - Profit: The average weekly profit of self-breeding and self-raising was 131.97 yuan/head, an increase of 10.10 yuan/head compared with last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 104.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.75 yuan/head compared with last week [38] - Pig-grain ratio: The pig-grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to decline further with the Sino-US trade game and firm feed prices [38]